Domestic Fare Hike XV

This is starting to sound like Super Bowl naming: Fare hike XV, the fifteenth, got underway last night.

And they're off! Delta breaks from the gate at the head of the field...

This update is from Rick Seaney at FareCompare.com:

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By Rick Seaney

This evening Delta Air Lines initiated the 15^th attempted domestic airfare increase of 2008 by upping fuel charges an additional $20 roundtrip across the bulk of its route system.

The new total fuel surcharge on numerous Delta city pairs is now up to a record $130 roundtrip ($65 one-way) -- oddly enough the total of this fuel surcharge increase combined with taxes and fees is now larger than the actual base airfare on several short haul domestic flights.

With a backdrop of a slowing economy, I continue to look for a tipping point where domestic air travelers begin to significantly push back on record high airline ticket prices. At best the jury is still out on whether we are seeing the first signs of push back (see conflicting reports below), what is abundantly clear however is that legacy airlines are willing to cut back even more capacity as we near this point:

• Travelocity says summer demand is strong (http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/stories/2008/05/05/daily30.html)
• Orbitz says domestic bookings are weak (http://www.chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?id=29334)
• Airlines show significant drop in April domestic traffic (more than can be accounted for by Easter in March) (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=agnAGzDFb4aM&refer=us )

I had predicted at least 2 more increases in May and nothing has changed recently changed to alter this opinion – the torrid pace of airfare increases puts us on track for just shy of 40 increase attempts this year (compared to 23 last year) – while this total is unlikely, it is not inconceivable if oil cracks the $150 barrier and beyond.

In related airfare increase news tonight -- United Airlines increased airline ticket prices between the U.S and Canada by $86 to $129 roundtrip.

I have updated our 2008 domestic airfare hike timeline as follows:

1. January 3^rd, initiated by United, $10 roundtrip, base airfare hike, successful

2. January 11^th, initiated by United, $30 roundtrip, fuel surcharge hike, unsuccessful

3. January 17^th, initiated by American, $20 roundtrip, fuel surcharge hike, unsuccessful

4. January 24^th, initiated by Continental, $20 roundtrip, fuel surcharge hike, successful

5. February 22^nd, initiated by United, $10 roundtrip, base airfare hike, successful

6. February 28^th, initiated by Delta, $10 roundtrip, base airfare hike, successful

7. March 7^th, initiated by United, $10 roundtrip, fuel surcharge hike, successful

8. March 14^th, initiated by United, $4-$50 roundtrip, base airfare hike, successful

9. March 19^th, initiated by Delta, $10 roundtrip, fuel surcharge hike, unsuccessful

10. March 27^th, initiated by Delta, $10 roundtrip, fuel surcharge hike, unsuccessful

11. April 9^th, initiated by United, $4-$30 roundtrip, base airfare hike, successful

12. April 15^th, initiated by United, $10-$20 roundtrip, fuel surcharge hike, successful

13. April 24^th, initiated by United, $4-$70 roundtrip, base airfare hike, successful

14. April 28^th, initiated by Delta, $10 and $40 roundtrip, fuel surcharge hike, successful

15. May 7^th, initiated by Delta, $20 roundtrip, fuel surcharge hike, pending

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