Summertime ...

Might it be too early to speculate on what domestic air travel may be like this summer? Perhaps not:

Summer air travel is gonna suck! It's gonna suck so bad!!

Sorry about the yelling. Channeling Sam Kinison there.

But really, it's going to be just awful. The only possible mitigating factor is that so many Americans will be utterly bummed out by the U.S. economy that they'll stay home in droves. Not likely, though.

Delta Air Lines today supplied some new hints of what's ahead. This comes just after major airlines sneaked in the fourth big across-the-board domestic fare hike this year (and by the way, I know they're not getting together in a big secret room and colluding on fixing fares. That would be wrong! But I swear, the recent fare increases do seem to have the reflect the same result.)

Delta said today it was cutting another 5 percent off domestic capacity this summer. By summer, 40 percent of Delta's seat capacity will be on international routes, where the profits are better.

And that's going to be a trend. At the end of last year, projections were that the major airlines would probably cut domestic seat capacity by an additional 3-4 percent this year (after a nearly 10 percent reduction last year). Now I am hearing estimates that domestic seat capacity on the major airlines might drop by as much as 10 percent this year.

Naturally, the news accounts are leading with Delta planning to cut 2,000 jobs, which is bad news -- but doesn't nearly have the effect on most of us that widening capacity reductions will have, even with fare hikes continuing.

Last year, domestic airlines racked up an average load factor of about 80 percent. That means 80 percent of available seats were sold, and it further means that on most flights, every single seat was full.

Last summer, load factors were close to 90 percent, incidentally. You saw the cascade of delays, cancellations, diverted flights and instances of passengers stuck for long hours on tarmacs.

That just gets worse this year. What little advice I can offer is: Book early if you have plans.

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The Morning News

---As a part-time resident of southern Arizona, I joke that I'm against that anti-immigration fence on the border because we might some day decide to flee to Mexico. In a depressing article in today's Slate on how American business incompetence has become a laughingstock worldwide, Daniel Gross reports: "Americans abroad are constantly taunted by perceived failings of American management. America's aviation system is now the butt of jokes because 9-year-olds have become accustomed to removing their Heelys before boarding a plane. As my family and I passed through the snaking security line in Cancún, Mexico's airport last month, we were harangued by a security guard who encouraged tourists to sing along with him: "Please. Do not. Remove. Your shoes."

---There will always be a Duffy: On St. Patrick's Day, the encouraging news that a Queens bar owner has banned the singing of "Danny Boy" for 48 hours is overshadowed this morning by the ravings of one Peter Duffy on the opinion page of the Wall Street Journal. In late 1846 and early 1847, says our man Duffy, Protestant clergymen and "the WASP establishment" including "the cream of New York society" were so stricken by reports of abject suffering and death from famine in far-off Ireland that they mounted a city-wide fund-raising campaign on behalf of th' poor, starvin' Emerald Isle.

The fact that the famine nevertheless "dragged on" for years "doesn't absolve New York's Irish from recognizing the generosity shown to them," insists this Duffy, who appears to be the type who used to stay for the recitation of the Rosary after all the other men had scooted out once the damn priest was seen approaching the scene of the wake.

News for ye, Duffy, me lad: The reason the "cream of New York society" was raisin' th' money was to try to keep th' poor starvin' Irish from actually comin' to New York, where a vicious nativist movement was gunning for them. Didn't raise enough dough, it would appear.

And a happy St. Patrick's Day to yez all.

---Except the McGreeveys, that is. To switch vernacular: Oy. (The story was broken yesterday by the Star-Ledger newspaper in New Jersey, which has a terribly designed Web site. As it its wont, the Post failed to credit its betters).

---And this just in: Glad to know these bozos have their eye on the ball and are spending their time concerned about what's really important, curse words.

---Excited Drudge headline of the day: "Paper: Why Does Hillary Wear Such Bad Clothes?" You have seen that boy Drudge's absolutely precious fedora, right?

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Big New Fare Hike: All Aboard

Northwest joined in the round of airline fare hikes, making it likely it will stick. Legally, airlines are not allowed to collude on fares because it would constitute price fixing, but they all seem to be marching and matching to the same tune these days ...

Here's an update -- with some good advice and analysis -- from Rick Seaney, the CEO of FareCompare.com

***

By Rick Seaney

"Update 3 – All Legacy Airlines Match United Increase, Will it 'Stick'?

Saturday, March 15, 2008 11:03pm CDT

Earlier this evening in the 5:00pm EDT domestic U.S. airfare distribution Northwest Airlines completed the matching of the unprecedented $4 to $50 roundtrip increase initiated by United Airlines late Thursday evening.

Northwest Airlines had been last to match on several of the past increase attempts and their matching tonight marks the 4^th increase by the legacy airlines in consecutive weeks and the eighth attempt at an increase in 2008 (six – including this increase --“successful”).

Tonight Northwest Airlines completed what can only be described as the most broad based single domestic U.S. airfare increase since I began closely tracking airfares in 2002.

United had attempted on January 11^th, 2008 to increase the fuel surcharge from what was then $20 roundtrip to the then unprecedented level of $50 roundtrip (an increase of $30 roundtrip) -- which was then the largest single increase we have tracked -- but that particular increase attempt fell apart when Continental Airlines bailed out. It subsequently took an additional 5 weeks with incremental increases of $10 roundtrip (every week or so) to get to the current $50 fuel surcharge level by mid February - That fuel surcharge increase attempt in mid January pales in comparison to this particular airfare hike.

Most of the U.S. airlines continue to be upbeat about travel demand (short term) and have been churning out more revenue per passenger in the first two months of 2008 than the same time period last year, but there is no doubt airlines must be fidgeting with their worry beads as the 2008 economic forecast continues to slide and the seemingly unending march of oil prices continues through low $100’s per barrel and possibly beyond.

Most airlines had been on a “financial roll” up to the end of the 3^rd quarter of 2007, when they were blindsided y fuel increases that stopped their momentum in its tracks.

What are the airlines choices in a $140 barrel of oil environment and looming economic downturn?

Well, it is pretty simple and not very pretty for anyone involved, airlines and passengers alike:

· Airlines can continue to daub the wound by increasing airfares every week (or so) until corporate and leisure passengers significantly begin to push back

· Ground a significant portion of the most unprofitable flights (they have already been reducing either capacity or growth significantly in the past few years)

· Spin off or divest assets (frequent flyer programs, maintenance operations, …)

· Merge (not likely to help in the short term)

· Combination of all these

What can passengers do?

Unfortunately travelers better prepare themselves for more inconvenience and packed planes (if it is possible to be more packed) and higher prices for the foreseeable future. Airlines will continue to be promote deals, competition will foster deals in certain cities and travelers must be willing to be more flexible, by traveling on the cheapest days, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday and choosing the times of day and paths less traveled.

Prediction

I am predicting this increase will “stick” for a few reasons:

Demand continues to be firm for the moment

• United rolled back a few of the smallest increases tonight ($4 and $8) which were mostly overlapping with lower cost airlines, but did not touch the much higher $20, $30 and $50 roundtrip increases
• The legacy airlines were swift to match what is a relatively complex – laddered – increase without much hesitation
• They need the additional revenue to offset the highest jet fuel prices in history""
• ###
  

New Fare Hike Gains Traction, But Will It Hold?

You can never tell for sure on a weekend whether any new round of fare hikes initiated by an airline at week's end will stick through Monday. Sometimes a spoiler will back out and then everybody runs for the hills. But looming $110-a-barrel oil has made the airlines less skittish in that regard.

The latest fare hike, another big one, is sticking so far, says Tom Parsons, the CEO of Bestfares.com. On Thursday, United filed a series of higher fares, from a $10 round-trip increase on short flights to $50 round-trip on flights over 1,500 miles. Continental followed the next day, and now American, Delta and US Air have too. Northwest -- which has been a spoiler in the past, but recently has tended to go along -- hasn't yet joined in. But the weekend is early.

Here is the latest from Parsons:

"" All Major Airlines Raise Airfares Except Northwest. Is This Fare Hike A Bust?

On the evening of March 13, 2008, United Airlines raised both leisure and business domestic airfares by $10 round-trip on flights up to 500 air miles, $20 on flights 501 to 1,000 air miles [ed. note: mileage measured each way on a round trip]; $30 on flights 1,001 to 1,500 air miles; and a whopping $50 round-trip on domestic flights over 1,500 air miles ...

On Friday March 14, 2008 Continental Airlines was the first major airline to match United Airlines airfare hike. “Today American Airlines, Delta Airlines and US Airways also jumped on board. The only holdout of the major airlines NOT to match is United Airlines airfare increase is Northwest Airlines.

“Northwest Airlines has been the spoiler on airfare increases many times in the past” says Tom Parsons, CEO and Founder of Bestfares.com, an internet travel website that tracks airfare changes and travel industry trends. It does not mean that Northwest won’t match these fare hikes tomorrow but as of today Northwest offers the cheapest business and leisure airfares up to $50 less than their competitor. “If Northwest elects not to match this aggressive airfare hike by Sunday March 16, 2008, this could force the other five legacy airlines to rapidly descend their new higher airfares” adds Parsons.

“If there is any good news for travelers, America now has many routes served by the low cost carriers. Due to the competitive nature of the airline industry in most instances, the major airlines are forced to offer lower competitive airfares on these routes. When comparing airfares in nearby competitive markets that are serviced by low cost carriers and comparing nearby alternative airports to non competitive markets some airfares can be better than half price” ...

"It should also be noted that since December 18, 2007, the major airlines had already successfully raised both leisure and business airfares by $70 roundtrip by either raising airfares or fuel surcharges. If this increase is matched by American, Delta, Northwest and US Airways, travelers flying over 1,500 airmiles on non-competitive routes will be paying as much as $120 roundtrip more on the same routes in less than three short months. Listed below are the airfare hikes and fuel surcharge increases the major airlines have made since December 18, 2007.

(1) Week of December 20, 2007: Major airlines raise fuel surcharges on leisure and Business Class fares from $10 roundtrip to $20 roundtrip. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $10 roundtrip.

(2) Week of January 7, 2008: Major airlines raise leisure and Business Class airfares by $10 roundtrip. Fuel surcharges still remain at $20 roundtrip. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $20 roundtrip.

(3) Weekend of January 24, 2008: Major airlines double fuel surcharges on leisure and Business Class airfares from $20 to $40 roundtrip. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $40 roundtrip.

(4) Weekend of February 22, 2008: Major airlines raise airfares on both leisure and Business Class airfares $10 roundtrip. $40 fuel surcharge still in place. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $50 roundtrip.

(5) Weekend of February 29, 2008: Major airlines raise leisure and Business Class airfares $10 roundtrip. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $60 roundtrip.

(6) Weekend of March 7, 2008: Major airlines raise fuel surcharges from $40 to $50 roundtrip. Total airfare increase with airfare hikes and fuel surcharges since December 18, 2007, $70 roundtrip.

(7) March 14, 2008: United & Continental Airlines raised both leisure and business domestic airfares by $10 roundtrip on flights up to 500 air miles, $20 on flights 501 to 1000 air miles, $30 on flights 1001 to 1500 air miles, and a whopping $50 roundtrip on domestic flights over 1,500 air miles one-way. On March 15, 2008 American Airlines, Delta Airlines and US Airways matched the new fare hike. ..."

###

Not So Fast ...

(Top: The New Gulfstream 650; bottom: the Citation X)


There's a big, pretty, full-page ad in the Wall Street Journal today for the in-development Gulfstream 650 business jet. And what a beauty it is, just in pure terms of design. (Please, no scolding letters from save-the-planeters. The last business jet I hitchhiked on crashed in a Brazilian rain forest, and I am abundantly aware of the multiple ironies involved.)

But there's also a story in the New York Sun (breathlessly linked to by, who else, Drudge) that makes it sound like the new Gulfstream jet will be the fastest thing beneath the sound barrier.

Ain't exactly so. Cessna's popular Citation X (pronounced "X" and not "Ten") , introduced 12 years ago, is far less roomy and has about half of the projected 7,000-mile range of the new G650 (and is also well under half the projected $60 million cost for the new Gulfstream) -- but it will be able to fly at essentially the same maximum speed: The Gulfstream will be able to clock in at a max Mach 0.925, compared with the Citation X's max of Mach 0.92 -- just under the sound barrier.

The Mach 0.92 bragging rights are a big reason the Citation X has been such a hot seller, despite a somewhat more cramped cabin than other jets in its model segment.

Besides, by the time the new Gulfstream starts coming off production lines in four years, an under-development new supersonic business jet might well be on the market.

###

Another Fare Hike

I’m glad Rick Seaney at FareCompare.com is keeping such close track on these interminable air-fare hikes. When I go to book a ticket these days, that $350 fare I was expecting suddenly has turned into a $600 fare, such as one I just booked to Atlanta. Here’s the latest report from Rick, who has been doing a tremendous job keeping track of these fares:

***

By Rick Seaney

United Airlines 4^th Airfare Increase in a Row – Up to $50 Roundtrip!

Friday, March 14, 2008 9:15am CDT

Last night in the 8:00pm EDT U.S. domestic airfare distribution United Airlines raised airline ticket prices between $4 and $50 roundtrip for the bulk of its route system.

This attempted airfare hike is the 4th consecutive weekly increase and marks the 8th attempted increase in 2008 – five of the previous seven attempted increases in 2008 where “successful”.

This increase attempt breaks the pattern this year’s numerous $10 “every week or so” increase attempts — by increasing airfares up to $50 roundtrip for the longest distance routes and providing 6 different price increase levels based loosely on distance.

This United increase is “loosely” based on route distance (with several notable exceptions) and is laddered as follows (leisure, 14 days advance purchase or more, business, less than 14 days advance purchase):

• $4 roundtrip increase – 300 leisure city pairs, 700 business city pairs
• $8 roundtrip increase – 1,500 leisure city pairs, 3,800 business city pairs
• $10,$11,$12 roundtrip increase – 3,900 leisure city pairs, 5,800 business city pairs
• $20 roundtrip increase – 200 leisure city pairs, 180 business city pairs
• $30 roundtrip increase – 5,000 leisure city pairs, 6,200 business city pairs
• $50,$52 roundtrip increase – 2,500 leisure city pairs, 3,800 business city pairs

The total city pairs with an increase are approximately 20,000.

United has thrown down the gauntlet for this particular increase – a change of this magnitude across such a wide range cities, with different increase amounts ostensibly based on market competition (or lack thereof) and distance is a massive undertaking. Legacy airline matching may take some time as they try to absorb the intricacies of this complex airfare hike.

A quick check of the United Airlines hub city Denver shows this laddered increase on dozens of city pairs, even on overlapping Southwest Airline markets.

I have been closely following airfares for almost 5 years and this past 6 months (culminating with this latest increase) have been so volatile on the increase side that I don’t have any historical information to compare it against – I have been predicting air travel consumers are in for a wild ride on airline ticket prices this year and I think we just reached the top of the highest point on this rollercoaster…

Case in point, in the midst of the increase there is a sale in place started by Southwest which is getting selective matching, so those that are very flexible can still grab some of the cheapest air travel deals we have had in the past year.

Other notable increases occurred on U.S./Canadian markets of $22 roundtrip by several legacy and smaller airlines (initiated by Air Canada).”

***

Here here is the way it's seen today in a report by Tom Parsons, the CEO of BestFares.com:

"United And Continental Airlines Attempt To Raise Airfares Up To $50 Roundtrip

Arlington, TX -- March 14, 2008 - On the evening of March 13, 2008, United Airlines raised both their leisure and business airfares by $30 roundtrip on flights up to 1,500 airmiles and a whopping $50 roundtrip on domestic flights over 1,500 airmiles. Continental Airlines matched this increase today.

"If this airfare hike sticks, it will be up to 250% higher than any other fuel surcharge or airfare increase we have seen since December 18, 2007," says Tom Parsons, CEO and founder of Bestfares.com, an interline website that tracks airfare changes and travel industry trends. "We have seen United raise airfares once this year for $30 roundtrip, but that attempt was rolled back," adds Parsons.

It should also be noted that since December 18, 2007, the major airlines had already successfully raised both leisure and business airfares by $70 roundtrip by either raising airfares or fuel surcharges. If this increase is matched by American, Delta, Northwest and US Airways, travelers flying over 1,500 airmiles on non-competitive routes will be paying as much as $120 roundtrip more on the same routes in less than three short months.

Listed below are the airfare hikes and fuel surcharge increases the major airlines have made since December 18, 2007.

(1) Week of December 20, 2007: Major airlines raise fuel surcharges on leisure and Business Class fares from $10 roundtrip to $20 roundtrip. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $10 roundtrip.

(2) Week of January 7, 2008: Major airlines raise leisure and Business Class airfares by $10 roundtrip. Fuel surcharges still remain at $20 roundtrip. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $20 roundtrip.

(3) Weekend of January 24, 2008: Major airlines double fuel surcharges on leisure and Business Class airfares from $20 to $40 roundtrip. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $40 roundtrip.

(4) Weekend of February 22, 2008: Major airlines raise airfares on both leisure and Business Class airfares $10 roundtrip. $40 fuel surcharge still in place. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $50 roundtrip.

(5) Weekend of February 29, 2008: Major airlines raise leisure and Business Class airfares $10 roundtrip. Total increase since December 18, 2007, $60 roundtrip.

(6) Weekend of March 7, 2008: Major airlines raise fuel surcharges from $40 to $50 roundtrip. Total airfare increase with airfare hikes and fuel surcharges since December 18, 2007, $70 roundtrip.

Please note that this hike might not stick unless matched by AA, Delta, Northwest and U.S. Airways.
(7) March 14, 2008: United & Continental Airlines raise airfares by $30 - $50 roundtrip. Total airfare increase with airfare hikes and fuel surcharges since December 18, 2007, $100 for flights up to 1500 miles, $120 for flights over 1,500 miles.

"Now that the price of crude oil has gone as high as $111 per barrel this week, we do expect the airlines to pass this higher fuel cost on to the traveling public," states Parsons. "If there is any fact here, air travelers will be paying much more than they did last summer, especially in markets where the legacy airlines do not have to compete with low-cost carriers such as Southwest Airlines, JetBlue, Spirit, Virgin America and Frontier."

As fuel prices continue to rise, non-competitive markets will continue to take the brunt of future airfare and fuel surcharge hikes. The biggest opportunities for low-cost travel are to those travelers who have the option of flying on low cost carriers, or on those routes where the legacy carriers have to match those fares to remain competitive. Those travelers still have the "Freedom To Fly" for less, for example, coast to coast for as little as $198 roundtrip.

"For those who are planning travel for the upcoming busy summer travel season, the airlines are going to have to keep addressing the reality of higher and higher fuel prices and the general public is going to have to face the fact that they are going to have to spend more if they want to continue to travel by air. If you thought you'd be able to travel this year for less than, or even the same price, as last year, well you better get rid of those thoughts because they're not based in reality," adds Parsons . (" )

###

The Morning News ...

---On the USA Today Web site this morning, I clicked on "Southwest Repairs 4 Cracked Jets," and whooo, here comes a pop up ad for a Southwest fare sale.

---Headline of the day so far, from this morning's Salon: "Are Bill Clinton, Rupert Murdoch, the pope and Osama bin Laden part of a new global power elite that may make traditional governments obsolete?"

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Brazil Update: Pilots Can Testify in U.S.

For those of you who may still be following the Brazil-crash story, a news break: A Brazilian federal judge today reversed himself and ruled that the two American pilots charged in the Sept. 29, 2006, mid-air collision over the Amazon can give their testimony in the U.S., according to Joel Weiss, one of the attorneys involved in the complex and anguishing case.

I have let my separate Brazil blog lapse in recent months. I'm planning on getting it back up to date soon.

Just as background, Brazilian authorities insisted for over a year that the two pilots of the Legacy 600 private jet that collided at 37,000 feet with a Brazilian 737 (killing all 154 on the 737) be required to return to Brazil for the trial, which is ongoing.

Famously, Brazilian authorities had rushed to "criminalize" the accident and scapegoat the Americans during the emotional uproar following the collision. I was one of the surviving passengers.

As I have reported since practically day one, the disaster was put in place by Brazilian air traffic controllers who had placed both aircraft at the same altitude on the same path, in an area over the Amazon notorious for poor radio and radar communications. Also contributing was the apparent failure of an avionics device that was linked to the anti-collision alarm on the private jet.

Seven of us on the private jet, including the two pilots, Joe Lepore and Jan Paladino, somehow walked away alive after an emergency landing in the Amazon. The four other passengers and I were detained and interrogated for several days, but the two pilots were held in Brazil for two months until a judge ordered their release in December 2006.

The day of their release, the Brazilian authorities cobbled together criminal charges of failing to ensure the safety of Brazil's troubled skies. The charges carry prison terms upon conviction.

However, there is no extradition treaty between the U.S. and Brazil on those charges -- and the two pilots understandably were hesitant to return to Brazil, where the clamor for their conviction had been strong even as it became abundantly clear that air-traffic control failures caused the disaster.

It hasn't yet been determined how the judge's questions will be posed to Joe and Jan, who have already been interrogated repeatedly. The Brazilian judge can travel to the U.S. for the proceeding -- but it's more likely the questions will be posed in writing, at a time period that's still several months away. In the U.S.

At the time of the crash, Joe and Jan were employed by ExcelAire, the Long Island jet charter company that had just purchased the new $27 million Legacy jet on the day it crashed. Joe still is; Jan took a new job with a commercial airline. Both pilots were and are deeply concerned about the ramifications of any conviction in Brazil, as they would then technically become fugitives, subject to arrest in many other countries.

Aviation authorities and pilots groups around the world condemned the Brazilian rush to criminalize and politicize the accident. My sense is that emotions have cooled and perhaps the Brazilian justice system will dispose of this tragic matter with reason and with a sense of duty to the cause of aviation safety everywhere, which depends on honest investigations of accidents.

###

American Airlines to Gatwick: 'Buh-Bye'

The Open Skies agreement between the U.S. and the E.U. was designed to create new competitive opportunities for flying between U.S. cities and European cities. And it will.

On the other hand, American Airlines is moving its last flight from Gatwick to Heathrow, obviously as an anti-competitive thrust against both Continental and British Airways. Continental recently paid an amazing $209 million to acquire for four Heathrow slots, as part of its plan to start service between Heathrow and New York under the Open Skies provision that allows Continental to begin flying to and from London's main airport.

Both Willie Walsh, the British Airways chief executive, and Richard Branson, the Virgin Atlantic founder and honcho, have been grumbling quite loudly with complaints that the first phase of Open Skies gives a competitive edge to U.S. carriers and that the second phase, due to kick in next year, had better well give European carriers more freedom to acquire U.S. carriers outright or to operate more freely within U.S. cities.

An airline brawl is shaping up over the Atlantic. Usually that's good news, at least temporarily, for customers. It's gonna get noisy and ugly fast.

Anyway, this is the announcement from American Airlines:

"FORT WORTH, Texas -- American Airlines will move three of its London flights from Gatwick Airport to Heathrow Airport in the coming weeks as part of the "Open Skies" agreement between the United States (U.S.) and the European Union (EU) which takes effect March 30.

American previously announced that it will move one of its two daily round-trips between Dallas/Fort Worth and London Gatwick, as well as its daily round-trip between Raleigh/Durham and Gatwick, to London Heathrow Airport on March 30.

In addition, American will be moving its second daily round trip between DFW and Gatwick to Heathrow on April 13. American recently obtained additional take-off and landing slots at Heathrow to make that move possible. This will result in the closure of American's Gatwick operations after 26 years of service. All of American's employees at Gatwick have been offered jobs at the airline's other London locations.

"We want to strengthen our competitive position within the new 'Open Skies' regime, so it makes sense to focus our efforts in London at Heathrow," said Henry Joyner, American's Senior Vice President - Planning. "These changes do not impact the total number of American flights to and from London. We'll operate up to 18 daily departures to Heathrow this summer from seven U.S. airports."

American's London Heathrow gateway cities in the U.S. will be: New York (JFK), Boston, Dallas/Fort Worth, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles, and Raleigh/Durham.

In addition, while not directly related to the new "Open Skies" agreement, American will continue to serve London Stansted Airport from New York's JFK Airport. [My note: That flight flight, added in October, was a competitive thrust against Eos Airlines, the all-business-class carrier that began flying between New York and Stansted in late 2005]

American will add a second daily Stansted round trip beginning Aug. 1. ...

The new "Open Skies" agreement also allows airlines to add new cities within Europe to codeshare relationships with other airlines. Effective April 13 American intends to add 12 new destinations by expanding its existing codeshare agreement with Spain's Iberia Airlines, one of its oneworld Alliance partners. Among the 12 new destinations are Valencia, Seville, Gran Canaria, Brussels, and Lisbon. American flies nonstop between its Miami hub and Madrid, where passengers will be able to easily connect to the new destinations."

###

The Morning News ...

---Re: Man arrested for running on runway at Heathrow. If he was flapping his arms, my guess is he was just desperately trying to depart on time.

---Just saying: Can the news media please stop prominently referring to that poor soul of a 22-year-old prostitute, the one who brought down the august Client 9, as being from a "broken home?" What the hell kind of a pinch-face Pius XII-era term is that? All reporters, editors or publishers who print or broadcast it ought to be able to swear that they come from a home unaffected by divorce.

---Note No. 2 on the same subject that everybody in New York can't stop talking about: What exactly does $5,000 get you, anyway? ("Royally screwed," someone told me). Anyway, that's the question every male I know has been asking. There was a time when dinner and a couple of rum and cokes and being really nice and funny and ... well, never mind, that was back when Kennedy was running around the White House pool with hookers. Who knew?

---Note No. 3: This one is serious. The 22-year-old hooker that everyone is being so gleeful about is a Jersey girl. "A Jersey tomato," as some of the snickering louts in the media have put it. If I were still a city editor, I'd send a couple of smart reporters out on this story: That filthy dung-hill of a town, Atlantic City, has now lured two generations of poor, messed-up girls from South Jersey and the Jersey Shore into all levels of prostitution -- hotel high-end and motel low-end. My hunch is that the former Ashley Youmans, later known as Ashley Alexandra Dupre (accent on the "e," godhelpus), was one of them.

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Mr. Spitzer Goes to Washington

[Top: Client 9, with his Patriotic Flag Pin and his "Ain't-enough-Xanax-in-the-world-to-get-me-through-this-day" poor spouse, cruelly placed on display]

[Bottom: The Scene of the Crime]


Oh man, does the New York Times have a corker of an exclusive today.

Whoo-eee -- and this one just gets worse, for "Client 9" and others. We are now re-entering Theater of the Absurd-land in New York politics ... which has disgraced itself. Again! (To quote Yeats in another context.)

I remember that the former New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller, who inconveniently croaked while IN THE ACT of having sex with a woman other than his wife, though he was not paying cash, per se. I don't think Nelson actually ever paid cash. And, of course, he wasn't on the taxpayer payroll at the time.

Whatever: The next in line to become governor of New York, after "Client 9" quits, is the lieutenant governor, who is legally blind (ok there -- who needs to see what is going on in Albany? Trust me, I've spent time there. And the new guy will undoubtedly have more vision that his predecessor (s) . Next in line after him: State Senator Joe Bruno, who is under investigation by the F.B.I. on unrelated matters.

[Update March 14 -- On the other hand, maybe I'm too rash in crediting the new governor with the potential for vision, Albany being Albany. See Paterson's amazing response to a discrimination lawsuit cited in this little beauty from the Daily News.]

You really, truly cannot make any of this stuff up.

Myself, I want to see "Client 9" Spitzer's expense accounts for those business trips to Washington.

A while ago, the crooked Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards said the only way he could lose an election was "if they found me in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

New York ain't Louisiana, and I don't even think Louisiana is Louisiana anymore.

Spitzer is talking the usual pious palaver about redemption and --gag me now --- failing to meet his personal high standards. I'm sure some staff flunky, and more than a few of the usual therapy-whores in the media, are desperately thumbing through their D.S.M. IV (r)'s looking for excuses.

Meanwhile, Spitzer disgraced himself further by dragging out his unfortunate (though very rich) wife as a prop to stand beside him -- very much as that ass-hat former governor of New Jersey, McGreevey, did to his own wife when he got caught in a gay sex-extortion scandal.

Can a man possibly insult his wife any more than that? What sort of a man would even ask? I mean, how does that conversation even begin?

Spitzer says he is not resigning, of course. I give the bum maybe a day because like all chiselers he's hoping for a lucky break.

And Client 9: Why don't you lose the lapel flag-pin display? Nobody's saluting, Skippy.

By the way, what kind of an anxious day do you suppose Clients 1 through 8, and 10 through whatever, are having?

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The Main Cause of Delays

Let's leave aside for the moment the issues of the poor way many airlines treat passengers who are stuck in stranded planes, and the airlines' willfully dishonest reporting of stats on delays, diversions, cancellations and strandings.

The delays crisis is worsening. Michael Boyd of the Boyd Group has a useful primer (warning: it's lengthy) on why. Here it is.

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Flight Delays and Cancellations Mount (Cont'd)

Airlines are scrambling today to assemble crews and airplanes in the right places after an unholy mess yesterday caused by rain and wind and, of course, a system chronically stretched so tight that there is no slack for disruptions.

Here's how it toted up at 3 key airports yesterday, according to FlightStats.com:

Atlanta: Overall ontime arrival rate: 22 percent. Number of cancellations: 287. Number of arriving flights delayed: 835. Number of those arrival delays that exceeded 45 minutes: 609.

JFK: Overall ontime arrival rate: 20 percent. Number of cancellations: 200. Number of arriving flights delayed: 376. Number of those arrival delays that exceeded 45 minutes: 286.

Newark: Overall ontime arrival rate: 22 percent. Number of cancellations: 209. Number of arriving flights delayed: 327. Number of arrival delays that exceeded 45 minutes: 263.

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Start Worrying

The F.A.A. says (as dutifully reported here) hey, not to worry! Those two planes that were put into danger in the air near Pittsburgh by a rookie controller had beaucoup distance between them! Hundreds of feet! Besides, anti-collision systems are foolproof!

Dunno, but I seem to recall a pretty harrowing personal experience in an airplane collision 37,000 feet over the Amazon, put in place by an inexperienced Brazilian air traffic controller who had two planes on a direct collision course, while his colleagues failed to notice that they'd had no contact with one plane for 50 minutes in an area known for spotty radio and radar. When the anti-collision warning system also failed, 154 people died -- and the seven of us who lived still can't figure out how we walked away alive.

Now look at the safety violations piling up in the United States. (Hello, Southwest). Look at the increase in reports of runway incursions. Look at the amount of maintenance outsourcing.

Remember that the nation's air traffic control towers are understaffed, and that all those controllers hired en masse during the Reagan Administration are reaching retirement age. And the F.A.A. has been dragging its feet getting up to staff.

Worry.

***

In other news...

Excited Drudge headline of the day: "French women 'are the sexual predators now'...'

Hey, dude: Chill! You've seen Sarkozy trying to stay balanced on his little white pony! Get back to those breathless stories about Prince Harry -- he's the one that looks like the butler, innit? -- that absolutely nobody else in the world besides the Queen-obsessed UK Telegraph newspaper cares about.

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Singapore Airlines: All-Business Class Across the Pacific

You heard it here first.

"SINGAPORE AIRLINES TO LAUNCH FIRST ALL-BUSINESS CLASS FLIGHTS FROM USA TO ASIA

(Los AngelesNGELES, March 4, 2008 – Citing consistently strong demand from business travelers, Singapore Airlines has announced plans to convert its five Airbus A340-500 ultra-long-range aircraft into an all-Business Class configuration on daily flights from New York and Los Angeles, making it the first airline to offer this service over the Pacific.

The current 2-class, 181 seat, configuration will be replaced with 100 of the airline’s new, award-winning, Business Class seats in a 1-2-1, configuration. At 30-inches wide, the seats are the largest Business Class offering in the sky.

Unique to Singapore Airlines’ widebody aircraft, every seat will have direct access to the aisle, and convert to a horizontal flat bed. The new Business Class seats are the same design as those installed on the Airline’s A380 and B777-300ER fleet.

The implementation will be phased in gradually from mid-May, 2008, on the New York (Newark) to Singapore route, with daily services in the new configuration to New York by the end of June, and Los Angeles by late September 2008. The program will require each of the five aircraft to be retrofitted in turn.

To manage the retrofit program, the existing daily Los Angeles to Singapore non-stop flight will not operate on Tuesdays between mid-May and late-June. There will be no change to New York service frequency.

Customers who are currently booked in Executive Economy Class on the A340-500 services, which will be affected by the conversion, will be re-accommodated where possible on existing Singapore Airlines services between Los Angeles, New York and Singapore.

In the future, customers looking to fly Economy Class between Singapore and Los Angeles or New York can book on existing one-stop flights.

In the case of New York, a daily B747-400 three-class flight operates between Singapore and New York’s JFK Airport, while between Singapore and Los Angeles; there is a daily B747-400 three-class flight via Tokyo and a four times weekly B777-200ER two-class flight via Taipei.

The Morning News ...

---Quote of the day, from a story by Allen Salkin in today's Times Sunday Styles section about a couple of New York developers who are renovating two crummy Atlantic City off-Boardwalk motel properties into one of those snotty "SoHo House-y" hip hotels:

“Atlantic City is one of the most disgusting places in the world,” said Sean Kalish, a 26-year-old lawyer who visits the casinos to play poker. He was standing in a slender peacoat waiting for the Atlantic City bus at the Port Authority Bus Terminal on Wednesday. “It’s like Las Vegas got drunk and slept with South Jersey and this is their bastard child.”

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Could Have Been Worse

From Bill Shea:

U.S.Air Force's announcement on Thursday said that a Missouri
National Guard F-15 jet broke apart in midair on Nov. 2, 2007; the pilot
evacuated the plane safely. The breakup in mid air was blamed on parts
that didn't meet specifications; which raises issues ranging from national
security to potential legal action and even foreign sales.

New Round of Fare Hikes? Advice: Buy Now, Fly Later

This from Rick Seaney, the CEO of FareCompare.com:

"Thursday, February 28, 2008 3:35pm CST

In today’s 12:30pm EST airfare distribution Delta Air Lines raised domestic airfares by $10 roundtrip on the bulk of its route system. Over 18,000 city pairs show this new $10 roundtrip airfare hike affecting both leisure and business travelers.

This domestic airfare increase attempt follows a similar $10 roundtrip hike last week initiated by United Airlines and marks the 6^th attempted system-wide increase this year. Three of the previous five attempted increases in 2008 have been widely “successful” (sticky) except on selective routes dominated by lower cost airlines.

This trend in airfare hikes closely follows a similar pattern as 2007, where 23 attempted increases resulted in 17 successful airfare hikes. Airfare increases are being driven by the unprecedented run-up in fuel cost, firm demand for air travel and limited seat capacity. Last week I had predicted at least one more increase this quarter and would not be surprised to see another as well.

Airfare deals are going to be fewer and farther between in the coming years and travelers should brace themselves for higher prices – savvy travelers should be changing their shopping patterns by starting the purchasing process much earlier and being flexible on travel dates and times."

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Airline Trade Group: Criticism 'Not Constructive'

(Update: I'm happy to give the spokesman for the Air Transport Association his say in his posted comments. But I cordially take issue. The airline industry has consistently failed to address the atrocious problems associated with mounting delays and the stranding of passengers on airplanes for long periods of time. Inadequate health and safety provisions for passengers are the issue. So is dishonest reporting of operations data, including flight diversions and cancellations. And if the ATA has problems with the passengers' rights movement's "mission creep" into areas other than stranded passengers, that is something the ATA needs to address with someone other than me.

We have a real and growing crisis in domestic air travel. I have never known passengers to be so angry, and much of the anger is prompted by bad customer service, indifferent management, and the expectation that every time you go to the airport, something unpleasant is likely to occur. Flight delays and cancellations are a routine occurrence. Every business traveler I know is fed up with the major airlines -- and these are people who understand the issues.

The ATA has blamed everybody but the major airlines that fund it for the problems. Yes, the air traffic control system is a mess and it's getting worse. Right now, it's being held together -- such as it is -- only by heroic efforts by controllers on the job. (And by the way, all those controllers Ronald Reagan hired when he fired the striking ones? They're all hitting retirement age).

Where has the industry been all these years as this obvious air-travel crisis developed? Paying top management big bucks, humiliating the workers they haven't fired, meekly going along politically with the F.A.A. as that inept government agency utterly failed to deal with congestion and outdated technology, that's where. Why hasn't the ATA been screaming bloody murder about the federal government's abject failure to bring the U.S. air-traffic system up to speed?

Instead, the ATA was busy putting together that silly "Edna" video campaign to try to blame the private jet industry for the problems of air-traffic congestion. Or applauding the risible White House stunt last Thanksgiving that opened a few military air lanes for commercial traffic, which of course then had to funnel itself right back into the same system.

The time has come for the major airline industry to cut the jive. Tell it straight. We are in a real jam, and it is going to be with us for years. NextGen is, as Mike Boyd calls it, "YesterdayGen" -- and even if NextGen does ultimately help alleviate congestion (which lots of people don't believe), it's more than a decade behind schedule, and still years away from operation. This is no way for a major world economic power to run its air travel system.

The sooner we all get on the same page, the better prepared we'll be to start finding solutions. Not all airlines are egregiously at fault, but the ones that are will simply have to start dealing honestly with their customers -- or government will step in. I'm convinced of that.

And yes, air fares will rise. We need to get used to that. In return, air service must improve. The airlines need to get used to that.)

****

Kate Hanni's Coalition for an Airline Passengers' Bill of Rights issued a "report card" on the industry today and it isn't pretty. Here's a copy: final2007reportcard.pdf

Kate's group is focused primarily on one issue: How airlines treat passengers who are stranded on parked planes, amid deteriorating conditions, for three hours or more. (In some cases last year, passengers sat in growing distress on parked planes for 12 hours and more). And what needs to be done to require airlines to provide for basic in-cabin health, sanitation, food and water; to give stranded passengers timely, reliable information, and to provide a way for people to get off stuck planes after a certain number of hours.

The airline industry is adamantly opposed to the group's push for federal legislation (bills are pending in both houses of Congress), insisting that it can handle the problem itself.

But it hasn't handled it. Instead, the industry's mouthpiece trade group, the Air Transport Association (ATA), has attacked Kate Hanni personally and, as shown in the following statement it issued today, has tried to muddy the issues.

Here's the statement the ATA issued:

"The Air Transport Association responded to a report issued by a consumer group critical of the airlines on customer service and delays, calling the group's claims baseless and not constructive. ATA went on to say that carriers are aware of the serious problems created by flight delays and noted that improving the country's outdated air traffic control system will address the core issue of delays. Steps have been taken at the individual carrier level as well as in concert with other stakeholders in the airport and government communities to address these challenges," the ATA said."

The disingenuousness in that statement lies chiefly its claim that "flight delays" are the issue -- and not airlines holding people for three to 13 hours in parked planes without adequate food, water or ventilation, and as passengers suffer through added indignities like unusable toilets.

How many stranded passenger instances have there been? Thousands, by Kate's group's count. By industry count, there were 462 flights last June alone that sat on tarmacs with passengers unable to move for at least three hours, and in many cases far longer.

Per usual, knuckleheads in the local press and cable network television media, who don't seem capable of doing reporting beyond what they've been told to put in their notebooks or cameras by the last flack they spoke to, keep confusing the issue.

No, NBC4 Washington, there were not merely "thousands of delays" in the air-travel system in 2007.

There were millions. Do the math. Industry data show that well over 25 percent of flights last year were delayed. There were 11 million flights. Allowing for the percentage of those flights that left the U.S. for another country (whose operational performance isn't reflected in the delay statistics), that still indicates that about well over 2 million domestic flights were delayed in 2007.

The ATA sniffs that criticism is not "constructive," while obfuscating the issue -- as if the Air Traffic Control system is responsible for not emptying overflowing toilets on stuck planes.
The airline industry doesn't seem to be getting the message that it had better sit up and pay attention to what it needs to do -- or will be legally required to do -- about stranded passengers and the crummy way they've been treated. “Who would think it would take a law to ensure passengers on a stranded plane get a drink of water and a working toilet?” New York State Assemblyman Mike Genaris, who drafted the landmark passeners' rights law that took effect Jan. 1 in New York State, asked me not long ago.

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The Morning News ...

---Your brain off drugs: I remember when George Carlin was actually funny. When did he turn into Red Skelton?

---Excited Drudge headline of the day (Another two-way tie!): "Prince Harry Fights Taliban" and "Channel 4 News in Britain: 'I Never Thought I'd Find Myself Saying 'Thank God For Drudge' ... (Me, I'm starting to worry about that boy. Drudge, I mean, not Harry the Prince.)

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