That No-Fly List and the Times Square Bomber

There's a lot of baloney being peddled today again about the "no fly list," which manifestly did not work when the flea-brained Times Square would-be bomber managed to get onto an airplane for Dubai the other day with the cops hot on his tail.

Again, it appears to me that the TSA, which has been operating without a permanent director for 16 months, has failed another major security test.

It's being dutifully reported that the TSA was not responsible here. Technically true. My question: Why not?

Yes, for international flights, the responsibility for enforcing the terrorist watch lists still rests with airlines, rather than with the TSA. Late last year, the TSA began taking responsibility for domestic enforcement of the lists from the airlines, in a move to reduce the number of infuriating false-positives on the so-called "selectee" portion of the lists.

Incidentally, reporters keep confusing the selectee portion of the lists with the no-fly portion. This is an egregious error.

The selectee list, the one that drives innocent people nuts, consists of hundreds of thousands of "identities" that correspond to about 30,000 actual people who are considered by various law-enforcement agencies to be worth having a second look at before they fly. The trouble with the selectee list is that airline enforcement cast a very wide net, and upstanding citizens whose names are even similar to someone on the list were routinely hassled at airports.

The TSA's new so-called Secure Flight program is supposed to be addressing that problem by taking the enforcement from the airlines to the TSA itself, and by requiring fliers to provide additional personal information on booking, allowing the TSA to more accurately check them off the selectee list.

The no-fly list is a whole other kettle of fish. If you're on it, you do not fly. Period. It is a deadly serious list. The Times Square would-be bomber, Faisal Shahzad, was placed on the no-fly list hours before he bought his ticket and boarded that plane.

TSA responsibility for enforcing the lists on international flights is scheduled to commence later this year. That includes the no-fly portion.

How come? How come after seven years and tens of billions of dollars spent by the TSA on security theater, on patting down infants, people in wheelchairs and -- I can personally attest -- parrots, some would-be terrorist whose name is on the no-fly list manages to 1. Buy a one-way ticket, for cash, for Pakistan from New York and 2. Get onto the airplane. His escape was averted only when the cops and FBI rushed onto the plane and hauled him off.

The New York Police Department did spectacular work, as usual, finding this bozo. The FBI did great work, too, although unaccountably the suspect slipped from surveillance for a couple of hours before turning back up on the radar.

The half-assed bomb he constructed failed to go off in Times Square. The perpetrator -- and this Faisal Shahzad looks to be a malcontent Islamist U.S. citizen who went looking for terrorist cred in Pakistan only after his American Dream went sour during the mortgage crisis in Connecticut -- is behind bars and singing like Sinatra. Nancy Sinatra.

But it ended without catastrophe.

That was no thanks to the TSA, which again drops the ball in a crisis.

Yes, the responsibility for red-flagging this nitwit was technically the airline's. The question is: Why? Where was the TSA?

And again, I need to point this out: The TSA has been operating without a permanent director for 16 months. The agency is still being run by Bush political appointees and Civil Service hires who have been on duty through every single TSA screw-up in the history of the agency.

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Arresting the Times Square Would-Be Bomber

Great police work by the NPYD and FBI in nabbing the flea-brained would-be terrorist who planted the car bomb in Times Square Saturday night. While Drudge, Fox News, Pete King and other hysterics were near fainting from the terror-vapors, the cops did their job calmly and deliberately.

There was an interesting situation just before the guy was arrested on that Emirates flight to Dubai at JFK. The plane almost took off. See this, via Politico, via ABC News reporting on the ATC transmission on the very useful Web site LiveATC.net, which monitors live air-traffic control chatter.

On the other hand, let's not make too much of this being a "close call." Had the plane taken off, it certainly still would have been called back to Kennedy, and the pilots without question would have complied.

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Phoenix Paper: 'Arizona, Our Time for Excuses Is Over.'

Sometimes a newspaper makes you proud. Today, the Arizona Republic, a conservative newspaper that's part of the Gannett chain, is a moment of journalistic greatness -- not just for this terrific article rebutting conventional wisdom on Arizona border-town safety, but for this thundering editorial holding elected officials' feet to the fire over immigration clownishness.

The editorial is actually today's front page, a special sheet wrapped around the traditional front page, which is shown to the right.

###

Travel Warning for New Delhi

The U.S. Embassy in New Delhi is warning that "there are increased indications that terrorists are planning imminent attacks in New Delhi."

Here is the alert. And I have no idea what a "warden message" means.

Could someone please instruct the State Department in India, where English has been spoken and written for over a century, to communicate in standard English?

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Arizona Boyott

Nah, just kidding. Nogales, Az., International Airport always looks like this.

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European Airports Ending Liquids Ban in 2013

While the TSA in the U.S. still drifts along, a year and quarter without a permanent director in charge, the European Union has found a way to lift the widely hated and frequently ridiculed ban on carrying liquids. It will occur in 2013, however.

From Speednews.com, via an EU announcement:

The European Union this week announced new measures intended to streamline and simplify the EU framework for aviation security. The new measures will update those policies which were first put into place in 2002 following 9/11, the first time the EU had adopted common rules on aviation. Previously each Member State had its own rules for aviation security.

"The revision is about better regulation – simplifying and improving procedures to make it easier for industry on a daily basis to implement safety controls, without any reduction in security," EU said in a press release.

The framework sets a deadline of April 29, 2013 for the lifting of current restrictions on the carriage of liquids in cabin baggage. New screening equipment for liquids must be used in all airports across Europe by that deadline.

As a preliminary step in phasing out the restrictions on liquids, beginning April 19, 2011 at the latest, duty-free liquids purchased at third country airports or on board third country airlines and carried in tamper evident bags will be allowed as cabin baggage and will be screened, the EU said. Currently these liquids are only allowed in cabin baggage if they come from selected third countries (United States, Canada, Singapore and Croatia).

It says the package will also open the door for negotiating "one-stop shop" security agreements with third countries. Those agreements could potentially reduce re-screening for transfer passengers.

"A lot has been learnt since the first EU-wide rules putting in place common aviation security standards were put in place after September 11," Commission Vice-President in charge of transport Siim Kallas said. "This is about building on the experience of recent years and streamlining procedures, so that on a daily basis security controls are easier for industry to implement. For passengers, the aim is also to simplify wherever possible the necessary security controls. In that sense this package takes a significant step forwards in signaling the beginning of the end for the current restrictions on liquids in cabin baggage, with a clear and final deadline of April 2013."

The new rules put in place a series of measures to improve, streamline and simplify existing procedures, by:

* Eliminating duplication of security controls. For example, reducing costly duplication of checks in strictly controlled areas of EU airports, where there has already been strict screening for access. This is of significant operational benefit for airlines and airports.
* Simplifying procedures. For example, by establishing a single set of standards for the documents you need to get access at airports. The new rules clarify which kinds of identification and authorizations are necessary for access to different restricted areas. This clarifies the situation for authorities making it easier for them to operate the system.
* Harmonizing procedures. For example, introducing EU-wide procedures for the recognition of hauliers transporting air cargo consignments. These can be recognized and used by hauliers in all Member States – this reduces restrictions for hauliers and the need for costly re-screening of cargo.
* Introducing common minimum standards as regards security training for all staff that implement security controls.


"The implementation of these security measures at EU airports will continue to be closely monitored through unannounced Commission inspections," the EU said in its press release. "Where necessary, the Commission will perform follow-up inspections or start infringement procedures against Member States in order to ensure the overall level of aviation security in the EU."

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Oil Slick Forecast for Lousiana Coast

If it's not one thing it's another ...

Arizona's Stupid New Immigration Law: Read It For Yourself

[Photo -- Clueless in Phoenix, Appointed Gov. Jan Brewer signs Arizona Laughingstock Law]

I'm impelled to publish the full text of the ridiculous bill that the appointed governor of Arizona, resembling some poor dear wandering a casino looking for the nickel slots, signed into law yesterday.

The actual text is useful because reporters can't seem to explain this nonsense coherently. For example, I just read in a news account that the bill makes it a crime "to not carry immigration papers."

What the hell are "immigration papers" and why must you or I have them on our persons in Arizona -- or be arrested? Even in a stone stupid law, that makes no sense.

That's another consequence of one of the more disturbing trends in journalism today, the trend toward paraphrasing rather than quoting specific language. As Bill Moyers said, "Reporters are paid to explain things they don't understand."

Anyway, here is the text of the bill as signed into law. As any second-year law school student can see, it's full of laughably imprecise language and spurious provisions that won't stand up to legal challenge.

And I hasten to add that this ridiculousness -- vaulting Arizona to the top of the national state-laughingstock list (South Carolina and Mississippi say thanks!)-- is the work of the nativist cabal that controls Arizona from within the invincibly resentful white right-wing population mass in Phoenix.

Phoenix is Orange County circa 1964, but without an ocean. Tucson, on the other hand, is relatively progressive (if politically weak) -- a citadel of good Old West sense and diversity.

Some people are calling for a tourism boycott of Arizona. But I'm launching a new campaign here: "Tucson, the Anti-Phoenix."

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Ugly Racial-Bigotry Charges At Ritz-Carlton in Florida

[Please see my comment at the bottom about newspapers giving free rides to bigots in comments attached to legitimate news stories online]

Just as higher-end travel is coming back and five-star hotels are reporting a small rebound, the swanky Ritz-Carlton hotel in Naples, Fla. has a sticky situation on its hands.

Alas, there's a lot of rushing to judgment online about this, compounded by the predictable onslaught of people shooting mouths off in comments before the facts are clear.

This much is clear:

A 15-year employee at the hotel -- a Haitian-born U.S. citizen -- has sued for emotional distress. He says he was blocked by supervisors at the hotel restaurant from serving a British couple who had specified in their instructions before arrival that they not be served by "people of color" or people with "foreign accents," according to a report first published in the Naples, Fla. News.

According to the Naples newspaper, the complaint states that a guest-profile entry in the hotel computer system, which is consulted by staff, said: "As per Mr. Staros, this couple is very, very prejudice(d) and do like like (sic) ppl of color or foreign accents."

The reference, by the way, is to Edward V. Staros, the top executive at the hotel and, ulp, a co-founder of the Ritz-Carlton chain in the U.S. during the 1980s. (Ritz-Carlton was bought by Marriott International in the 1990s).

Staros is one of the lions of the hotel industry and, frankly, I'm not buying any assertion that a person of his stature would have been so crude, let alone so dumb, as to promulgate a bigoted directive at the behest of some racist slobs from the UK.

Hotel people are the smartest and most cosmopolitan people in the travel industry; they were practicing diversity before it became something that corporations had to do -- it just doesn't add up to me that a guy like Staros would given any such guidance to staff. I repeat: It doesn't add up.

More likely, the low-ranking staffer who made the vile profile entry -- if the lawsuit complaint's citation is accurate -- was merely invoking the boss's name. That's the general assumption among hotel people I talked to today, by the way.

Furthermore, Staros himself also spoke with the British guests after the initial commotion and instructed them, speaking for the company, that they are no longer welcome at any Ritz-Carlton in the world, said Vivian Deuschl, the Ritz's highly respected spokeswoman.

Ritz-Carlton is a well-managed company that is intensely focused on staff training and has a solid record of international diversity. But the company needs to move decisively to deal with this and keelhaul those responsible, because this story has legs.

Here's the official statement from Ritz-Carlton:

"Ritz-Carlton is in the process of investigating the facts underlying the lawsuit. While we do not comment on ongoing litigation, we believe it is important to convey several points. We absolutely deny that Ritz-Carlton in any way condones discrimination by its guests against its employees or discrimination in any form.

"We value our guests and employees and their diversity in all respects. The guests in question stayed at the hotel in March 2010 and were barred from the hotel and other Ritz-Carlton Hotels shortly after their stay ended, as information about their conduct and comments came to light. We are in the process of reminding all of our employees of Ritz-Carlton’s strong non-discrimination policies."

***
And by the way, the editors at the Naples Daily News need to use better judgment in the kinds of comments they're allowing to be posted with their story on this incident. People have the right to say whatever they want, within the legal bounds of libel and slander. Anyone can start a blog or buttonhole their neighbors. But newspapers shouldn't give bigots and ignoramuses a free ride on the tails of a legitimate news story.

###

US Air: We're No Longer Talking to United About a Merger

US Airways says it no longer is talking to United Airlines about a possible merger.

In a letter to employees this morning, Doug Parker, the US Air CEO, said, "our Board of Directors has decided to discontinue those discussions ... those talks have not progressed to a merger agreement, and for the foreseeable future we intend to remain a standalone carrier."

Not long after the talks between United and US Air began last month, United also began talking with Continental Airlines about a merger. Those talks are continuing.

Parker, like other airline executives, strongly believes that the domestic airline industry needs to contract and consolidate to achieve better control over pricing. "As I have said many times, it is not necessary for us to be direct participants in a merger because the entire industry benefits when consolidation occurs," he said in his letter to employees today.

He added, "I am sure some 'industry experts' will suggest that US Airways will be strategically harmed if United now chooses to merge with Continental. They will be wrong. Thanks to all that we have done together over the past two years – capacity rationalization, a la carte revenue programs, cost control and our commitment to operating efficiently and reliably – we have a strong and viable standalone airline that is producing industry-leading results. Should our competitors choose to merge and help create a more stable airline industry, our independent airline will only become stronger."

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Narco Gunmen Storm Holiday Inn in Monterrey, Mexico, Abduct Guests

Gunmen stormed two hotels in downtown Monterrey, Mexico, in the middle of the night and abducted 7 guests and workers in one of the boldest attacks yet against the staggered tourist economy in the border region of Mexico.

The hotels were the Holiday Inn Centro and the Mision Hotel.

Here's the New York Times report on the attack.

Monterrey, a major business center for both Mexican and American companies, is about 150 miles south of the Texas border. Border towns from Tijuana to Matamoros have been stunned by drug violence in the last two years, and tourism has been devastated.

Nearly all of the violence, which has accounted for about 20,000 murders in Mexico in two years, has been between drug gangs or drug gangs and police and military, though innocent bystanders have often been killed. This year, violence escalated sharply in Monterrey, but an attack on a major tourism/business hotel is very unusual.

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Airlines Ready to Jack Up Fares With 'Fuel Surcharges' Again?

If it's not one thing it's another.

According to Rick Seaney at Farecompare.com, airlines may be poised to slap fuel surcharges on domestic ticket prices, something they haven't done since November 2008, when legacy airlines folded these surcharges into the base airfare as the price of oil dropped dramatically from record summer highs that year.

[Delta has already added fuel surcharges to many peak summer fares, and other carriers could follow.]

With oil prices rising over $80 a barrel, surcharges are beginning to make a comeback, according to Seaney. On Monday, he said, "Delta Air Lines filed a $20 roundtrip ($10 one-way) fuel surcharge on top of their lengthy list of peak travel day surcharges, on tens of thousands of mostly smaller city-pairs with no departure date restrictions."

For example, a one-way connecting Delta flight from San Francisco to Denver or Dallas (via Salt Lake City) on May 27 has both a peak travel surcharge of $30 and a fuel surcharge of $10 tacked onto the base airfare.

"A closer inspection of the cities with this new fuel surcharge shows that airfares to/from Delta's hub cities along many non-stop routes were spared this fuel surcharge hike -- placing most of the hike on smaller markets and larger non-hub cities," Seaney said, adding:

"Airlines have been struggling to get even the smallest systemwide domestic airfare hike to stick this year. Several attempts have failed in the last few months. In lieu of significant base airfare hikes, airlines have resorted to fewer sales, peak travel day surcharges, a bevy of non-ticket fees, and the release of fewer of the cheapest seats, all in order to increase revenue.

"This new fuel surcharge filing is effectively an airfare hike as miscellaneous (peak) and fuel surcharges are added to the base airfare prices before the 7.5 percent U.S. sales tax is added on. Note that as of this afternoon no other airlines have matched the fuel surcharge increase."

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Corporate Travel Managers Assess Impact of Europe Shutdown

[Correction: ACTE is based in Alexandria, Va., not in the UK.]

Stranded travelers and canceled meetings were the two top effects cited by corporate travel managers in a new survey of the impact on business travelers of the volcanic ash crisis that shut down air travel in Europe.

The Association of Corporate Travel Executives (ACTE), in a survey of its international membership, says that 31 percent of respondents claimed their greatest challenges resulted from stranded travelers and canceled meetings (as an equal priority). Nineteen percent cited stranded travelers as their primary concern, while canceled meetings were a major issue for 11 percent. Twenty-two percent checked "all of the above,' including stranded travelers, canceled meetings, reduced sales calls, and increased expenses. A remaining 11 percent said they were not affected at all.

ACTE is based in the UK. The ACTE president-elect, Chris Crowley says he is currently stranded in the United States.


Asked if air-travel disruptions in Europe were to continue for months or even a year, 29 percent of respondents said they would rely on a strategic response combining rail travel, ground transportation and electronic travel alternatives -- including video and Web conferencing. Thirteen percent reported they have a program for electronic travel and meeting alternatives in place now. Thirty-nine percent indicated they had both a strategic response and a plan in place now, while 19 percent felt confident they would need neither.

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Never Mind II: Now the Brits Are Reopening Air Space -- Tonight

In an abrupt twist, Britain plans to phase in an opening of its air space tonight at 10 p.m. London time, which would be shortly from when I am posting this around 1.30 p.m. Pacific time.

Let me note, there is some remarkable stuff in this statement from the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), which has come front and center amid growing criticism of two for-profit companies that have been largely setting the agenda in British response to the crisis, the National Air Traffic Services (NATS) and the Met Office. Both NATS and the Met Office have been criticized for allegedly overreacting to the situation starting last week.

An example of some remarkable stuff in the announcement: The news that aircraft manufacturers (whose specifications are sunk into the bedrock of aviation safety standards) have "increased tolerance levels" for flying near low-ash areas.

Anyway, here is the statement from the CAA, the UK’s aviation safety regulator, issued in conjunction with the Irish Aviation Authority.

"New guidance allows a phased reintroduction from 2200 tonight of much of the airspace which is currently closed due to the volcanic ash plume over the UK. There will continue to be some 'no fly zones' where concentrations of ash are at levels unsafe for flights to take place, but very much smaller than the present restrictions. Furthermore, the Met Office advise that the 'no fly zones' do not currently cover the UK.

... The CAA has drawn together many of the world’s top aviation engineers and experts to find a way to tackle this immense challenge ... Current international procedures recommend avoiding volcano ash at all times. In this case, owing to the magnitude of the ash cloud, its position over Europe and the static weather conditions, most of the EU airspace had to close and aircraft could not be physically routed around the problem area as there was no space to do so.

We had to ensure, in a situation without precedent, that decisions made were based on a thorough gathering of data and analysis by experts. This evidence-based approach helped to validate a new standard that is now being adopted across Europe.

The major barrier to resuming flight has been understanding tolerance levels of aircraft to ash. Manufacturers have now agreed increased tolerance levels in low ash density areas. [Italics mine]

Our way forward is based on international data and evidence from previous volcanic ash incidents, new data collected from test flights and additional analysis from manufacturers over the past few days. It is a conservative model allowing a significant buffer on top of the level the experts feel may pose a risk.

In addition, the CAA’s Revised Airspace Guidance requires airlines to:

--Conduct their own risk assessment and develop operational procedures to address any remaining risks;

--Put in place an intensive maintenance ash damage inspection before and after each flight; and

--Report any ash related incidents to a reporting scheme run by the CAA."

###

Never Mind: UK Scraps Plan to Resume Flights As New Ash Cloud Looms

[UPDATE: British Airways canceled all long-haul flights departing from the UK today and all long-haul flights scheduled to arrive in the UK before noon tomorrow.]


Britain postponed a plan to open its air space more generally to flights as the Iceland volcano pumped more ash into the skies.

According to this report today in the Times of London, "Airports in the south of the UK will remain closed until at least 7 p.m. and British Airways abandoned plans to operate some short-haul flights. Glasgow and Belfast, which briefly reopened this morning, both shut by the afternoon."

This, alas, is going to be the situation for weeks, if not months, for air travelers in Europe if that Iceland volcano, Eyjafijallajokull, keeps erupting on and off, as has been its habit in previous major eruptions.

Worse, there's a bigger and more dangerous volcano just to the east of Eyjagfijallakull that has had an unfortunate tendency to erupt soon after its smaller neighbor does. Its name is Katla, which at least has the virtue of being easier to spell. Let's hope we don't have to spell that one too often, though.

[Hey, remember the good old days when the toughest foreign spelling journalists had to learn was Chiang Kai-shek?]

See my column in today's New York Times for a hint on how many business travelers, corporations and others stuck in the air-travel shutdown are finding alternatives using teleconferencing.

By the way, there is continuing controversy surrounding two private companies that have been setting the response-agenda in Britain - NATS, the privatized national air travel service, and the Met Office, which is in effect Britain's weather bureau. It's also a private company.

Both are under fire for using computer models to project ash-cloud patterns without supplementing the computer projections with real flight tests in the skies. NATS, for one, has been criticized for overreacting. The computer models used for the evaluations of the ash cloud are based on incomplete science and limited data, according to Matthias Ruete, the European Union's director-general for mobility and transport, quoted in the Financial Times newspaper yesterday.

In Britain, the Met Office, which defends NATS in this situation, is largely a province of meteorologists, rather than hard-core academic scientists.

Some weeks ago, a fascinating story in the New York Times described the conflict over global warming between meteorologists and climate scientists.

That story mentions a new study by George Mason University and the University of Texas showing TV meteorologists', let us say casual, attitudes toward climate science. Two-thirds of the TV weather people surveyed don't believe that global warming/climate change is caused by human activities.

Of course, most "meteorologists" (and being one requires merely a bachelor's degree, if that), are local television-news performers whose main focus is enhancing their own celebrity, with hand-puppets if ratings demand.

###


###

Vegas: A Bad 2009, But Luck Is Changing

I've always liked Las Vegas. But, critics sniff, it's so over-the-top! Yeah, I reply, but it's over-the-top to an epic degree; it's the dang apotheosis of over-the-top.

Living in Arizona, I always recommend a visit to Vegas to foreign friends who haven't been there. They never regret it. Unlike Atlantic City, which is a grubby, mean-spirited burg, Las Vegas is full of life and sun and, yes, small-town cheer, even though it's a big city.

Anyway, Vegas has had a couple of bad years, with the economy sour and with other factors like a sharp decline in air service (Vegas is a cheap-fare market and airlines have pulled about 20 percent of capacity out of the destination).

The emotional public backlash against spending on corporate meetings and conventions -- Las Vegas and Orlando are the top cities for big conventions -- has also hurt. (What? Your company spent dough on sending people to Vegas? Eeeeek!)

Anyway, the very efficient Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Bureau sent me the numbers for 2009. They look bad, but they also show a steady improvement all year, from truly dismal numbers in the earlier part of '09. Of course, the numbers on hotel rates are good news for visitors.

Some excerpts:

--Total visitor volume, down 3 percent.

--Airline passengers, down 8.2 percent.

--Hotel occupancy, down 4.5 percent

--Average daily hotel room rate, down 22 percent (to $92.93)

--Convention and meetings attendance, down 23.9 percent (to 4.5 million)

--Number of conventions and meetings, down 13.6 percent (to 19,394)

--Strip gambling revenue, down 9.4 percent

--Downtown gambling revenue, down 10.1 percent.

###

Very Slowly, Airlines in Europe Staggering Back to the Skies

[Update: European airspace is gradually being reopened as narrower boundaries are being drawn to mark the no-fly zone affected by volcanic ash.]

European airlines are announcing limited returns to service, with some planning flights as early as tonight.

Here are some of the current announcements:

Air France:

"Air France is intending to operate the following flights on departure from and arriving at French provincial airports:

Dubai, AF 4178, leaving from Bordeaux at 23:00

Beirut, AF 4164, leaving from Bordeaux at 16:00

Pointe-à-Pitre, AF 4160, leaving from Bordeaux at 14:00

Montréal, AF 4166, leaving from Bordeaux at 19:00

New York-JFK, AF 4180, leaving from Toulouse at 15:00

New York-JFK, AF 4184, leaving from Toulouse at 21:00

Washington, AF 4182, leaving from Toulouse at 18:00

Boston, AF4186, leaving from Toulouse at 23:00

For customers wishing to take these flights and who have a reservation, coaches leaving from Paris-Charles de Gaulle (Terminal 2E, check-in area number 7) will take them to the airports concerned on a space-available basis at the following times:

Monday April 19:

- 10 p.m. for flights AF 4180 to New York-JFK and AF 4182 to Washington

- 11 p.m. for flights AF 4160 to Pointe-à-Pitre, AF 4164 to Beirut and AF 4166 to Montreal

Tuesday 20 April:

- 7:00 a.m. for flights AF 4178 to Dubai, AF 4184 to New York-JFK and AF 4186 to Boston.

Arrival of 22 flights:


Bangkok, AF 173, arriving in Bordeaux at 06:00

Saint Martin, AF 3515, arriving in Bordeaux at 08:10

Santo-Domingo, AF 3525, arriving in Bordeaux at 11: 00

Douala, AF 173, arriving in Bordeaux at 06:10

New York-JFK, AF 4169, arriving in Toulouse at 10:00

Dakar, AF 4171, arriving in Toulouse at 08:00

Fort-de-France, AF 4163, arriving in Toulouse at 6:00

Rio de Janeiro, AF 445, arriving in Toulouse at 11:15

San Francisco, AF 083, arriving in Toulouse at 13:00

Saint-Denis de la Réunion, AF 4173, arriving in Toulouse at 21:00

Santiago de Chile, AF 401, arriving in Marseille at 11:20

Miami, AF 695, arriving in Marseille at 08:10

Buenos Aires, AF 417, arriving in Nice at 11:00

Abidjan, AF 703, arriving in Nice at 05:35

Washington, AF 039, arriving in Nice at 07:50

Bombay, AF 217, arriving in Nice at 08:05

Bamako, AF 3093, arriving in Pau at 06:05

Dubai, AF 4179, arriving in Pau at 14:40

Riyadh, AF 3863, arriving in Montpellier at 06:10

Malabo, AF 3009, arriving in Montpellier at 05:40

N’Djamena, AF 559, arriving in Montpellier at 06:10

Nouakchott, AF 3027, arriving in Montpellier at 05:50"

***

British Airways:

"British Airways will aim to resume some flights into and out of London's airports from 7 p.m. on Tuesday April 20 following the proposed reopening of UK and European airspace by the aviation authorities.

We are working on detailed plans to help as many customers as possible who have been unable to fly due to the unprecedented circumstances that have faced all airlines operating in northern Europe over the last five days.

... Tomorrow, we will aim to operate long-haul departures that were scheduled to depart after 4 p.m. and short-haul departures scheduled to depart after 7 p.m.. This will however be subject to the full and permanent opening of airspace.

All flights before these times have been canceled.

We have more than 80 aircraft and almost 3,000 cabin crew and pilots out of position overseas across our global network.

All of these aircraft will require detailed checks before they are cleared to enter service again.

Inevitably, this will mean some delays and we ask for our customers' patience and understanding in these very difficult circumstances.

Customers should check their exact flight details on ba.com and only come to the airport if they have a booking and their flight is operating.

Customers booked to travel on a canceled flight can claim a full refund or rebook their flight for a later date."

Virgin Atlantic

"Virgin Atlantic is currently working on its contingency plans, following the announcement by NATS that air space may open in the south of the UK tomorrow evening.

As such, Virgin Atlantic plans to operate a number of flights tomorrow once airspace has re-opened. Our priority will be to get as many passengers back their country of residence as quickly as possible. In the meantime all flights in and out of the UK remain canceled.

As soon as plans are confirmed further information will be published on the Virgin Atlantic website so passengers should check this for the latest flight information.

We strongly urge passengers not to travel to the airport over the next few days unless they have a confirmed booking on a flight which is confirmed to operate."


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Cost of Europe Shutdown to U.S. Carriers: $80 million and Counting

While European aviation officials brawl about whether the systemwide shutdown of airspace was an overreaction based on limited computer modeling techniques (see earlier posts), here's some data on the financial impact on domestic carriers:

The flight cancellations caused by the Iceland volcano eruptions will account for about $80 million in lost revenue to major U.S. airlines, including losses from secondary domestic passenger traffic generated directly by international flights, according to an analysis today by the Boyd Group.

"The financial hit for U.S. airlines goes well beyond the passengers lost on the trans-Atlantic," says Tim Sieber, the vice president of Boyd Group International, an aviation consulting and forecasting firm. "It extends into the domestic market as well, because international passengers also generate significant domestic enplanements."

On average, each international passenger journey generates approximately 1.4 additional domestic enplanements, he said. "Passengers to and from abroad don’t all remain in U.S. international gateway cities," he said. Many also fly onward (and back) within the U.S.

Boyd Group's analysis indicates that the European shutdown caused a loss of more than 73,000 domestic one-way passenger trips. In terms of actual passengers, U.S. carriers lost over 200,000 passengers during the first four days of the event alone.

International traffic has a growing importance in the domestic system. According to Boyd Group International's Airports' U.S. enplanement forecasts, over 27% of all US passenger enplanements will be directly or indirectly the result of international passenger demand by 2014. (An enplanement is defined as one passenger boarding one aircraft, whether on a nonstop or a connecting flight).

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World Airline Trade Group Slams European Governments on Airspace Shutdown

As I've been pointing out here since last week, there is serious concern in the aviation industry that the shutdown of air travel in Europe may have been a gross overreaction by governmental agencies and, in the case of the UK where the panic began, by a private company that manages Britain's air traffic.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) today sharply criticized "European governments" for what the airline trade group called "their lack of leadership in handling airspace restrictions." IATA urged "a re-think of the decision-making process."

The IATA CEO, Giovanni Bisignani, said in a statement: "We are far enough into this crisis to express our dissatisfaction on how governments have managed it -- with no risk-assessment, no consultation, no coordination, and no leadership. This crisis is costing airlines at least $200 million a day in lost revenues and the European economy is suffering billions of dollars in lost business. In the face of such dire economic consequences, it is incredible that Europe’s transport ministers have taken five days to organize a teleconference."

He was referring to a contentious teleconference over the weekend involving European air transport officials and Eurocontrol, the agency that controls air space on the Continent.

In his statement, Bisignani four times invoked the concept of risk-management. He criticized Europe’s closing airspace "based on theoretical modeling of the ash cloud."

Rather than governments doing what governments should do, which is take sensible responsibility for their air space, "it has been the air-navigation service providers who announced that they would not provide service," Bisignani said, in an apparent reference to NATS, the private company in Britain that manages UK air space. NATS led the shutdown last week as volcanic ash drifted toward the British Isles from Iceland.

IATA called on European governments to "agree on ways to flexibly re-open airspace." He said that "risk-assessments should be able to help us re-open certain corridors, if not entire airspaces."

Several European airlines have now conducted test flights at various altitudes, up to 41,000 feet, in various corridors. "The results have not shown any irregularities or safety issues," said Bisignani. Among options being explored by airlines as the ash cover lingers over sections of European skies are day flights using visual flight rules, rather than instrument flying. Also, Bisignani said, airlines are considering "specific flight corridors, special climb-and-descent procedures, and more frequent detailed boroscopic engine inspections to detect damage."

In Britain, Willie Walsh, the CEO of British Airways, took part in a two-hour test-flight yesterday. Walsh, a pilot, said that British Airways' tests provided "fresh evidence that the current blanket restrictions on airspace are unnecessary." He added, according to the Times of London, "we believe airlines are best positioned to assess all available information and determine what, if any, risk exists to aircraft, crew and passengers." BA is asking the government for a bailout after losing about $124 million so far in the airspace shutdown.

As noted here last week after the British company NATS shut down the UK air space that also serves as the most important gateway to Europe, airlines in Asia, where volcanic disruptions are more common than in Europe, immediately warned that the Europeans might be overreacting. "Is this a massive overreaction by supercautious politicians and bureaucrafts who are far more concerned about their own liability?" the Center for Asia Pacific Aviation, representing Asian carriers, said in a statement last week.

Bisignani said, "We have seen volcanic activity in many parts of the world, but rarely has it resulted in airspace closures, and never at this scale. When Mount St. Helens erupted in the U.S. in 1980, we did not see large-scale disruptions, because the decisions to open or close airspace were risk-managed with no compromise on safety."

IATA called on Eurocontrol to establish a "volcano contingency center capable of making coordinated decisions" and asked for an immediate meeting of the UN's International Civil Aviation Organization "to define government responsibility for the decisions to open or close airspace in a coordinated and effective way, based on real data and special operating procedures."

Stand by for more major flap on this one, as the world media finally come to terms with the story of the overreaction that shut down air travel in Europe, and stranded hundreds of thousands of people. And the bills are only starting to arrive.

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5 Big Airlines: We Won't Try the Spirit Airline Stunt

Well, duh.

Five big airlines swear they won't follow the lead of little Spirit Airlines and charge passengers to use the overhead bins.

That's the word today from Sen. Chuck ("Don't Get Trapped Between Me and a TV Camera") Schumer, who announced to the TV cameras today that he had obtained assurances from Delta, American, United, US Airways and JetBlue that they would not charge for carry-on bags.

"He said he was hopeful other carriers would follow suit," the AP said and added, equally portentously, "Notably absent from the list was Continental Airlines ..." Uh, AP: Most notably absent from the list was Southwest Airlines, which does not charge even for checked bags.

Now, come on, media. Except for Southwest (which carries more passengers than any U.S. airline), the major airlines charge for checked bags, for food and other in-flight services. They bang you $100 in cancellation fees. But there was no way they were considering aping that stunt by Spirit, the low-fare leisure carrier that is generally regarded as having the worst customer service in the industry.

No one who knows anything about airlines thought the idea of charging for overhead bags was going to be copied widely. Regular travelers, including business travelers, would simply draw the line at that one. And Southwest and JetBlue, among others, would undoubtedly go to town advertising that they don't do it.

There are, to paraphrase that lawyer joke, certain things even an airline won't do.

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