Frontier: I Wouldn't Bet On It

Here's the sad announcement from Frontier Airlines, which insists it's gonna hang in there, by gosh.

Remember, Frontier is at the mercy of a credit card company. A bank!

Somewhere, I'm hearing Snidley Whiplash cackling.

###

The Hits Just Keep On Comin'

Paying attention to all that commotion with the American Airlines meltdown? Not watching your flank?

Heads-up! Gotcha!

United Airlines just slipped in a big fare hike when we were otherwise engaged. From Rick Seaney at FareCompare.com:

United Airlines Attempts to Hike Airfares for the 11^th Time in 2008

Wednesday, April 9, 2008 10:45pm CDT

After a brief ten day respite from airfare hikes -- in what can arguably be described as one of the worst 10 days in commercial aviation history – United Airlines tonight is attempting to hike airfares for the 11^th time this year.

With the backdrop of failing airlines, congressional safety hearings, soaring fuel prices and massive inspection related flight cancellations -- United has seen fit to hike U.S. domestic airfares by as much as $30 roundtrip this evening across it’s entire route system.

Unlike the previous 2 failed attempts in the last weeks of March by Delta airlines of $10 roundtrip across the board – United has taken a different approach this week by increasing airfares from $4 to $30 roundtrip loosely based on mileage with deference to those routes that have significant lower cost airline competition. This technique of laddering several layers of increases has been previously successful in mid March when United was able to get the other 5 legacy airlines to significantly match a $4 to $50 roundtrip increase.

United’s passenger traffic for March 2008 fell by 2.7% -- even with the popular Spring Break and Easter holidays -- sounding the alarm bell for the first significant sign of softening demand for air travel in 2008.

I have updated the FareCompare.com 2008 airfare hike timeline as follows:

· January 3^rd, initiated by United, $10 roundtrip, successful (sticky)

· January 11^th, initiated by United, $30 roundtrip, unsuccessful

· January 17^th, initiated by American, $20 roundtrip, unsuccessful

· January 24^th, initiated by Continental, $20 roundtrip, successful (sticky)

· February 22^nd, initiated by United, $10 roundtrip, successful (sticky)

· February 28^th, initiated by Delta, $10 roundtrip, successful (sticky)

· March 7^th, initiated by United, $10 roundtrip, successful (sticky)

· March 14^th, initiated by United, $4-$50 roundtrip, successful (sticky)

· March 19^th, initiated by Delta, $10 roundtrip, unsuccessful

· March 27^th, initiated by Delta $10 roundtrip, unsuccessful

· April 9^th, initiated by United $4-$30 roundtrip, pending

Both United and Delta have taken airfare hike leadership positions this year initiating the bulk of the 6 successful system wide increases in 10 attempts before this evening – tonight’s increase by United means that many travelers will be paying up to $130 roundtrip more than they did in the first week of January 2008 for domestic airline tickets.

I would expect Delta to match quickly tomorrow, since they have been thwarted recently – while the other four legacy airlines will most likely weigh their options on matching over the next few days.

I cannot stress enough that air travel consumers who have been on the fence about summer travel purchases -- lock in their tickets as soon as possible -- prices are not likely to go lower and are much more likely to continue an upward spike in the coming weeks.

I will send out further research notes if/when any significant matching or rollback activity occurs related to this increase.

Regards,

Rick Seaney

CEO, FareCompare.com

####

American Airlines Meltdown Day 3: 900 More Flights Scuttled for Thursday

File this under: Wait! Wait! It Could Get Worse!

Now that it unexpectedly canceled half its schedule today -- 1105 cancellations so far of 2266 flights scheduled -- after indicating yesterday that "some" more flights could be scuttled, American Airlines says it has canceled another 900 flights tomorrow.

Here is the American announcement.

That's 900 canceled flights for tomorrow that they're already copping to. Who knows how many more than 900 actually bite the dust tomorrow? The weather is turning bad again in Dallas.


This afternoon, as if things were not absurd enough, American sent Dan Garton, its vice president of marketing -- marketing! -- out to assure the house reporters that too much was being made of these so-called safety concerns and of American's failure to meet FAA criteria on wiring on its 300 MD80s. "From my perspective, these were not huge errors," he said.

I gotta go order a pizza. And go watch television. Before. My. Freakin'. Head. Explodes.

###

Meltdown At American Airlines

Half of American Airlines' flight schedule collapsed today as the troubled airline said it had canceled more than 1,000 flights for the day because of problems associated with safety inspections of its MD80 fleet of aircraft.

At 6.30 p.m. Central time, American had canceled 1,092 of its 2,262 scheduled departures. Only 865 flights had departed, and they were running at a 57 percent ontime arrival rate nationally -- all according to FlightStats.com

Additional cancellations were expected through the evening.

It was the second day of massive flight cancellations by American over the MD80 safety-inspection problem. Yesterday, American canceled issue 495 flights. American had said it expected some cancellations today as it continued inspections on the MD80s, but gave no indication yesterday of the magnitude of the disruptions ahead.

And more bad news may be ahead for fliers: severe thunderstorms are forecast.

Here's a rather dire report on Weather.com. Egad! Lookit that nasty red blotch hovering over North Texas where American lives. Some days you just can't catch a break.

Severe weather would, of course, affect other airlines besides American. But American, the world's largest carrier, is already on the operational ropes because of its own problems with sidelined, out-of-position airplanes and crews -- not to mention frustrated, furious passengers unable to fly and, in many cases, unable to get out of airports.

Today, the American Web site continues to insult passengers' intelligence by playing down the chaos, as if no one knew the reality. "Aircraft inspections affect some AA travel," it says breezily, adding that a mere "several hundred flights" have been canceled in the last two days. Read it for yourself. [Update: They fiddled with the language after I first linked to this earlier today. Now it says that "a portion" of the schedule has been canceled, rather than "several hundred flights." The current version also has some customer-service information that wasn't there earlier today]


With its dearth of honest information on its Web site, American officials show that they just don't understand how a world has changed. They're relying on techniques that maybe worked back in the glory days of the New York Central Railroad: Send the PR guy out after the train wreck to jolly up the house reporters and get the best spin on things. The house reporters, after all, do in fact need their stinking badges for access.

Hence:

"American Fixes Its MD80s" -- The Dallas Morning News, today's online headline ...

"American Airlines Offers Vouchers, Reimbursements to Passengers" -- The Fort Worth Star-Telegram, today's online headline ...

But the world don't always work the way it used to, boys.

And oh, here's a real PR coup, showing an American spokesman handling questions from a TV reporter. American: Get. A. Grip.

Much better executed is an honest American Airlines press release that went out not long ago on the PR Newswire. Then again, American's customers don't usually consult the PR Newswire. This is what they should have put on line, where the customers go.

For the second straight day, tens of thousands of American Airlines passengers -- current estimates are that 100,000 passengers overall have been affected -- have been left scrambling for re-accommodations. Those flying from American's hubs at Dallas/Fort Worth and Chicago O'Hare were most affected yesterday and this morning. American flight cancellations also were mounting at New York LaGuardia today.

The flight cancellations were caused by continuing problems with the re-inspection of American's fleet of 300 aging MD80 line of aircraft.

American has now canceled over 1,500 flights in less than 24 hours. That is by any definition an operational catastrophe, with perhaps serious consequences for the financial footing of the world's largest carrier.

Anyone with plans to fly American today and tomorrow, and perhaps for the rest of this week, needs to do some serious contingency planning, or simply bail out.

Yesterday, American abruptly started canceling a large number of flights in mid-afternoon after ramp inspections on 9 MD80 at Dallas/Fort Worth showed problems in compliance with a previous FAA safety directive regarding bundled wiring near a fuel tank. In late March, American yanked the 300 MD80s off line, cancelling hundreds of flights, on the same issue.

By the end of the day yesterday, American had canceled 495 of the 2,172 total flights it had scheduled for the day. Tens of thousands of passengers were tossed into a chaotic scramble for re-accommodations that continues today.

American’s 300 aging MD80s are the medium-range workhorse of its mainline fleet, which numbers 655 aircraft.

Airline maintenance and safety-inspections issues have grounded well over 1,500 flights on a half-dozen airlines in the last two weeks, after a disruption at Southwest airlines during which FAA safety inspectors were charged with overlooking maintenance problems, partly because of fear that they would be disciplined if the airline complained.

The FAA’s cozy relationship with airlines — the FAA routinely refers to airlines as its “customers” — has become a national scandal.

In a letter released yesterday, the House Committee on Transportation rebuked three FAA officials who had testified before the committee last week for providing “inaccurate and misleading information” about airline safety inspections and procedures. The letter also grumbles about the FAA’s habit of referring to airlines as its “customers.”

jlo_jfc_pad-ltr-to-faa-on-4_9_08-safety-oversight-hearing.pdf

It’s signed by three ranking committee members. [The loquacious John L. Mica, the Florida Republican who is usually the first to board any bullet-train for publicity, did not sign the letter.]

By the way, the FAA testimony was given under oath. Used to be, Congress would do more than whine about being jerked around by witnesses under oath.

---Meanwhile, following these mounting flight cancellations for two days feels like being trapped in a public television station fund drive. Can we hit 1,000 cancellations today? Hit 1,000 and you get an AA-logo amenities kit and a Gerard Arpey bobble-head doll!

###

Bulletin: Massive Flight Cancellations at American

American Airlines has abruptly canceled 480 flights so far today [as of 7.45 p.m. EDT]. The reason: more maintenance/safety-inspection problems with the same aging MD-80 fleet that was removed from service, causing more than 300 cancellations, last week.

Flights also might be canceled tomorrow.

Late this afternoon, American put a small and lame link on its Web site: MD80 Inspections Affect Some AA Travel ... It rather casually informs you that "several hundred" flights have been canceled "starting April 8."

WTF, American: You canceled 480 flights as of 7.45 p.m. today, according to FlightStats.com. So that is not a mere "several hundred" flights. It is "nearly 500 flights, and counting." It is, as they would define it on my old block, a "s---load of flights."

From what I'm hearing, the bulk of today's cancellations occurred abruptly in the afternoon. Some aircraft full of passengers were even pulled off line before takeoff.

And do note: Even American says this fresh mess will continue through tomorrow.

Meanwhile, according to a statement by the Allied Pilots Association, the union for American pilots, the cancellations occurred after a FAA ramp inspection of nine MD80s to ensure they had been "inspected and modified" as required last week showed that all nine failed the audit. "Hundreds more" cancellations are expected tomorrow, the union said.


###

'Airline Quality' Report Twaddle: Doing the Math

Not to beat what I sincerely hope will become a dead horse [hey, wait a minute! I love horses, and I'm still mourning my old quarter-horse Boots, who had to be put down a few years ago. What a horrible expression!!] ... anyway, not to belabor the point, but I'm still seeing credulous references in the media to that asinine annual Airline Quality report put out yesterday by two attention-craving, publicity-savvy professors -- one from Nebraska and the other from Wichita State, which I gather is a Kansas equivalent of Rutgers but without the Turnpike.

In the monthly widely-disseminated Transportation Department statistics that the report entirely depends on, the only really useful statistics are those on late flight arrivals, which of course are routinely reported in the press, month by month. In other words, it was absolutely not news that more than a quarter of all flights were late last year, based on published arrival times.

Only 1999 was worse in terms of percentages of late arrivals, but 2007 was far worse in the sheer number of them and in the number that were excessively late (more than 45 minutes beyond scheduled arrival.) Also, 2007 was the year in which airline-passenger strandings were at unprecedented levels, and airline domestic inflight service deteriorated to new lows.

But reporting those things would have required doing actual shoe-leather research. (Or, at least, a more comprehensive clip-job effort -- since I, for one, been reporting them for a year.)

Besides the yeah-we-already-know matter of delays, the other statistics are utterly meaningless to anyone trying to make sense of the current crisis in air travel. I'm flabbergasted to hear this report being treated so breathlessly on network television and in newspapers that used to have editors who could keep really egregious survey crap out of the paper.

Below, Terry Trippler, who runs a popular though somewhat pricey online travel site, does us a small favor today in running some of the silly numbers the Airline Quality Report regurgitates.

I beg to differ with Trippler on one thing: Last year was by most accounts the worst year ever for air travel in the United States. In simply regurgitating DOT press releases, the Airline Quality Report just doesn't do the kind of serious research necessary to show it.

From Trippler:

"Well the annual Airline Quality Awards for 2006 are out and as usual the anti-airline folks were excited as ever about the decline in service on the nation’s airlines.

Airline service is going in the wrong direction and has been going in the wrong direction for way too long. However, before some of these folks become too breathless with “worst year ever” type headlines - let’s take a look at the numbers.

According to an article in USA Today …

• Involuntary denied boardings were 1.01 per 10,000 passengers
• And the consumer complaint numbers were 1.36 complaints for every 100,000 passengers. *

I converted the stats to actual passenger numbers using the three Washington D.C. area airports

Washington Dulles

23 million passengers in 2006 = approx 63,000 passengers per day

• approx 6 ½ passengers were involuntarily bumped per day (entire airport – all airlines)

· about every day and a half – someone complained to the DOT about airline service (entire airport – all airlines)

Washington Reagan

18.6 million passengers in 2006 – approx 51,000 passenger per day

• approx 5 passengers were involuntarily bumped per day (entire airport – all airlines)
• about every other day – someone complained to the DOT about airline service (entire airport – all airlines)

Baltimore / Washington International

20,500 million passengers in 2006 – approx 56,000 passengers per day

• approx 5 passengers were involuntarily bumped per day (entire airport – all airlines)
• about every other day – someone complained to the DOT about airline service (entire airport – all airlines)"

###

House Hearing on Airline Delays, Strandings

[Right: Kate Hanni]

The House aviation subcommittee is holding a hearing Wednesday -- house-hearings-apr-9.pdf -- on airline delays, cancellations and the absolutely inexcusable number of instances where passengers have been stranded on planes parked on tarmacs, without adequate food, water and sanitary conditions, for eight and more hours at a stretch.

A federal appeals court, known as a patsy for corporate interests, recently overturned the New York State Passengers Bill of Rights and that, too, is to be a subject of the hearing.

The witness list is impressive:

Calvin L. Scovel III, the Transportation Department’s no-nonsense inspector general; D.J., Gribbin, general counsel of the Transportation Department; Gregory Principato, the president of the Airports Council International North America (who has been leading the way to have airports step up to the plate in times of crisis, even if airlines will not); James C. May, the president of the Air Transport Association, the airline trade group; Gary Richards, the chief dispatcher for Delta Air Lines and my pal the incomparable, indefatigable Kate Hanni, founder of the grassroots Coalition for an Airline Passengers’ Bill of Rights.

###

Hyping Airline Data: Twaddle 101

I certainly have nothing against professors. My beloved wife is one, and so are several very good friends.

It's just these two birds, a marketing guy at Wichita State and some other guy at Nebraska, who are very clever at setting up media hype every year with their overblown "airline quality report" that, as far as I can tell, is merely a re-hash of data that the airlines routinely release each month to the Transportation Department, which in turn routinely releases them to the media.

The following words come right from the aviation quality report press material: "During both 2000 and 2007 there was talk of the United States heading into a recession; The airlines were making money after a nonprofitable period; and demand for air travel was strong."

Hully chee! as the Yellow Kid woulda said, smacking himself in the head, in another era in American journalism.

These guys know that just hammering away at the airlines -- without bothering to evaluate huge air-travel problems like the incompetent F.A.A. and without any new data at all -- somehow gets headlines and keeps their enterprise going.

Here's one asinine statistic the report trumpets:

Last year, complaints to the DOT about airline service were 1.42 per 100,000 passengers. (The USA Today newspaper, the one nobody actually pays for, is all atwitter over that fact today.) Now, I know some some reporters don't know nothing 'bout numbers. But really: a minuscule 1.42 per 100,000? The same asinine figure was cited on the network news programs. Don't any of these reporters have editors who will ask them to do the math and see just how ridiculously tiny and devoid of meaning that number is?

Everybody I know has serious complaints about airline service. We just don't file them with the DOT. That means, the figure is utter nonsense.

It isn't often that I concur with the Air Transport Association, the harrumphing airline trade group. Today I do.

Meanwhile, I just love Mike Boyd's furious reaction every year when this gaseous report comes out and gets all those dim-witted reporters jumping up and down on cue. "Golly gee, Captain Obvious: Where did they get this wealth of knowledge?" Mike asks today.

To see for yourself what pure sophomoric twaddle this report is, here's a copy:

2008-aqr.pdf2008-aqr.pdf

Keep in mind that every number in it comes from widely available monthly air-traffic consumer reports put out by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and regularly reported in the professional media. Or should I say 0.00000076 percent of the media, down a shocking 0.0000002 percentage points from the same asinine figure from last year.

###

The Morning News

---Just Askin': Is it OK to take away Charlton Heston's gun now?

---The Gods Must Cut It Out Now: British Airways and BAA, the operator of Heathrow, have plenty of blame to share for the recent mess following the opening of Terminal 5. But today, B.A. had to cancel 114 flights at Heathrow because of snow. In London. In April.

[Report from a correspondent who was at Heathrow today: "Snowed in London today. That by itself played merry hell with LHR as they closed one one-way to plow and sand it and then closed the other for the same. But that wasn't the big problem. Seems they decided that de-icing equipment and procedures at T5 could wait because who would need them in April. Who exactly? Turns out the answer is all those people who waited as much as five hours to get their planes de-iced. Add to that that BA had moved some flights to Terminal 1 where it didn't have enough tugs for push back so some planes--like mine--waited an hour for push back. At least our lot got to Nice and only two hours late. BA's black eye has to be as big as the London Eye at this point and the recovery marketing campaign is going to be a treat to watch.]

[Update 6 p.m.] Wait, wait: Saturday night was also a bummer:

British Airways flight makes emergency landing at Shannon Airport in Ireland
The Associated Press Saturday, April 5, 2008

LONDON: A British Airways plane bound for San Francisco, California, made an emergency landing at Ireland's Shannon Airport Saturday, officials said.

The plane was a Boeing 747 en route from Heathrow Airport to San Francisco with 347 people aboard, Shannon Airport spokesman Eugene Pratt said. BA said 328 of them were passengers.

"At about 6:45 p.m. Irish time (1745GMT) there was some sort of emergency concerning the hydraulic system," Pratt said. "It landed safely at 7:25 p.m. (1825GMT). Apparently the situation is rectified and they're fueling up to resume the trip."

BA described the emergency landing as a precaution, saying in a statement that the aircraft suffered a "temporary hydraulic indication defect" but that the pilot was able to reset the system.

A spokeswoman for the airline did not immediately return calls or e-mails seeking additional comment on the incident.

###

Skybus Stops

This should come as a surprise to absolutely no one: Skybus Airlines folded. Skybus promoted itself — and was credulously hyped by dim local and regional media — as an innovative new carrier that offered (a very limited number of) $10 seats on each flight. This ensured that 1. From the get-go, Skybus annoyed people who couldn’t get the widely hyped $10 fares and, 2. Its leisure-travel, gimme-a-bus-fare-in-the-skies customer base would rebel as soon as the regular fares rose, which of course they did.

Here is the Skybus announcement of its own demise.

And here's the background on Skybus, from Wikipedia.

This is the fourth shutdown of an airline in less than a week. Aloha Airlines ceased operations earlier in the week, followed by ATA and Skyway. Aloha was Hawaii-based and ATA flew a lot of Hawaii routes. Their closing is sending a shock wave through Hawaiian tourism.

And you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. With oil at current levels and not looking to drop significantly any time soon, stand by for heavy rolls in the airline industry.

###

Northwest to Cut U.S. Capacity, Hike Fares, Park More Planes

[PARK HERE: Pinal Airpark in Marana, Arizona, where airlines park planes in the sun]

NORTHWEST: 'You want a whopper with that?'

Citing "the high cost of fuel and current economic uncertainties," Northwest Airlines says it will continue raising fares, reduce capacity by 5 percent in September and park 15-20 more planes, including DC-9s and some 757s.

More fuel charges are ahead. For corporate travel buyers, fuel charges are different that fare increases because as a rule, fuel charges are added to the bottom line after negotiated discounts have been subtracted. This year, major airlines have been boosting ticket prices through a mixed series of fuel charges and posted fare hikes.

The Northwest statement said, "On March 18, 2008, for international routes, Northwest increased one-way fuel surcharges from North America to Europe, India, Japan and most other destinations in Asia ranging from $115 to $155. Fuel surcharges on flights from Japan to North America are now approximately $140 one-way but will increase to $160 one-way for ticketing starting May 1, 2008."

It continued, "For domestic routes, since Jan. 1, 2008 Northwest has participated in 11 attempts by various carriers to increase fares to reflect rising fuel costs, although most have been rolled back because some airlines failed to match."

By the way, it's disingenuous to say of fare increases that "most have been rolled back." Most have sailed through, across the board. On a few occasions, such as last week when Delta tried to ignite a new round, airlines have retreated in some attempts to raise fares, but in general it has been a steady drumbeat all year.

I know, 'Wot, an airline is being disingenuous?!' It's in their DNA, man.

[Rick Seaney, who does a superb job covering airfares at his invaluable FareCompare.com, jumped right on this whopper, giving the Northwest assertion a "4 Pinocchios" rating and showing in detail just how incorrect it is. I'm pasting Rick's e-mail to the bottom of this post.]

Northwest also matched other U.S. network carriers and for North American travel slapped on a $25 charge for a second checked bag, effective May 5. Full-fare passengers, WorldPerks elite-status members and the military are exempt from the added charge.

While squeezing domestic capacity, Northwest, like other major airlines, is continuing to beef up more profitable international routes (and their domestic feeders). So look out, domestic markets that don't provide sufficient international feed to the hubs. Get granny on a plane to London quick!

Northwest said it is "continuing to expand its international service with the addition of new flights between Detroit and London Heathrow; Minneapolis/St. Paul and London Heathrow; Seattle and London Heathrow; Minneapolis/St. Paul and Paris; Portland, Ore. and Amsterdam; and Dallas/Ft. Worth and Amsterdam, which will be operated by Northwest’s joint venture partner, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines."

In reducing domestic capacity, Northwest said it will "remove an additional 15 to 20 aircraft from service. Two DC-9s will be removed in June and the remainder in the fall to coincide with the planned schedule reductions. These fleet reductions will include approximately 10 DC-9s and the balance being a mix of Boeing 757s and Airbus A320s and A319s."

Northwest likes to send its sidelined planes to the vast desert parking area at Pinal Airpark in Marana, Arizona, where the Evergreen Maintenance Center has been doing brisk business in recent years receiving major airlines unwanted planes and getting them into shape for re-sale around the world. Evergreen president Jack Keating told me during a recent visit there that they can't find enough qualified aircraft technicians to handle the demand.

Northwest said it won't go back to its workers for more pay cuts.

"To the extent that the schedule changes will result in the need for fewer employees, every effort will be made to achieve these reductions through attrition. With the reduced flying, Northwest has suspended its plans to hire additional pilots and flight attendants."

Here is FareCompare.com's Rick Seaney's research note today, responding to the Northwest assertion that most attempts at fare hikes this year have been rolled back:

"The reason for this research note tonight is an enquiry I received from an airline analyst about a statement that was widely reported today regarding Northwest Airlines: http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/04/03/afx4852116.html

A portion of the statement notes:

“In addition, for domestic routes, since Jan. 1, Northwest said it has participated in 11 attempts by carriers to increase fares to reflect rising fuel costs. However, most fares have been rolled back because some airlines failed to match, the company said.”

The specific question posed to me by the analyst was the discrepancy between my previous analysis of airfare hikes – which had Northwest significantly matching 6 of 10 attempted airfare hikes in 2008 -- and the contradiction with the Northwest statement that “most fares (domestic) had been rolled back”.

The airfare hike timeline that FareCompare.com has meticulously recorded shows 10 attempts to increase airfares in 2008 – 6 successes and 4 failures – noted below:

· January 3^rd, initiated by United, $10 roundtrip, successful (sticky)

· January 11^th, initiated by United, $30 roundtrip, unsuccessful

· January 17^th, initiated by American, $20 roundtrip, unsuccessful

· January 24^th, initiated by Continental, $20 roundtrip, successful (sticky)

· February 22^nd, initiated by United, $10 roundtrip, successful (sticky)

· February 28^th, initiated by Delta, $10 roundtrip, successful (sticky)

· March 7^th, initiated by United, $10 roundtrip, successful (sticky)

· March 14^th, initiated by United, $4-$50 roundtrip, successful (sticky)

· March 19^th, initiated by Delta, $10 roundtrip, unsuccessful

· March 27^th, initiated by Delta $10 roundtrip, unsuccessful

I went back to our database (one of the largest in the world) of current and historical airfare information and compared all the airfares published by Northwest Airlines as at they existed on January 2, 2008 (no airfares are filed on New Years Day) to the prices today April 3, 2008.

With deference to the Washington Post, I am going to give this Northwest Airlines statement -- which implies their domestic U.S. airfares have not materially increased in 2008 – a rating of “4 Pinocchio’s”.

The following chart from our database clearly shows that the bulk of the domestic airfares from Northwest Airlines are up from $30 to $120 roundtrip for both leisure and business travelers since January 2, 2008.

Glossary:

• City Pair – Airfare filed between 2 cities
• City Pair Count – Number of city pairs with an increase or decrease of X dollars roundtrip
  • Example 50 cities to 50 cities (all combinations both directions) is approximately 1200 city pairs
  • Northwest files airfares for approximately 15,000 city pairs.
• X-Day – Advance Purchase Requirement (Days before Departure) -We bucket airfares by city pair and cheapest price point for several of the most frequent “days” before departure requirements on airfare
  • 7 or fewer days before departure are “business traveler” airfares (most expensive)
  • 10 or more days before departure are “leisure traveler” airfares (least expensive)
  • Airlines typically have 7 to 10 price points for any given city pair
• Up/Down – All increase or decrease dollar amounts are roundtrip

Some quick observations about this Northwest airfare comparison:

• The bulk of Northwest passengers are paying at least $30 or more roundtrip compared to January 2, 2008
• Approximately 2/3 of all Northwest passengers are paying at least $50 or more roundtrip compared to January 2, 2008
• A little over 1/3 of all Northwest airline passengers are paying at least $90 more roundtrip compared to January 2, 2008
• A negligible amount of Northwest passengers are paying less than they did on January 2, 2008
• In covering airfares for over 6 years, I have never seen a 3 month period for a legacy airline without at least a few thousand “decreases” – basically there are none this year

I am not sure why Northwest Airlines made this statement, but it certainly is not accurate according our proprietary historical airfare processing system.

Regards,

Rick Seaney

CEO, FareCompare.com

###

ATA Airlines Folds

faqs_customers.pdf

ATA Airlines ceased operations at 4 a.m. today after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection yesterday. The link above is an F.A.Q. for customers from the airline.

The Indianapolis-based low-cost carrier — which also did business as a charter-flight supplier for the military — blamed soaring fuel prices and the unexpected cancellation of a military contract.

Here’s the ATA announcement.

ATA flew between Chicago Midway and Dallas, Oakland, Guadalajara and Cancun in Mexico, as well as to Hawaii from Oakland, L.A., Phoenix and Las Vegas. It is the second carrier with Hawaii operations to go out of business this week. Aloha Airlines declared bankruptcy over the weekend and ceased operations on Monday.

ATA had over 2,200 employes, including 600 pilots and 800 flight attendants.

[If you have an ATA ticket purchased with a credit card, remember — as my friend Joe Brancatelli always points out — that you can call your credit-card company and get a refund for services not delivered.]

###

United 777 Update: 41 777 Flights Canceled, 36 of 52 Planes Inspected

There's now speculation that the testing procedure discrepancy that caused United to pull its 777s out of service yesterday might apply to other airlines' 777s as well. If so, that would mean major disruptions in long-haul service, including international flights, even as United gets its 777 fleet back on line, a process that is expected to be completed on Thursday.

Here's the final update of the day from United on the sidelining of its 52 long-haul Boeing 777 aircraft for inspections. As of 5.30 p.m. Central time, United said:

"36 aircraft have been inspected

There have been 41 flights canceled out of our 84 scheduled Boeing 777 flights today

Impact by city and international

ORD

5 cancels of 11 Boeing 777 flights

DEN

3 cancels of 4 Boeing 777 flights

IAD

7 cancels of 13 Boeing 777 flights

SFO

1 cancels of 10 Boeing 777 flights

LAX

3 cancels of 5 Boeing 777 flights

SEA

0 cancels of 1 Boeing 777 flight

International

20 cancels of 34 Boeing 777 flights

Hawaii

2 cancels of 6 Boeing 777 flights"

###

United Sidelines Its 777s for Safety Inspections

If you're planning to fly long-haul on United Airlines today or even this week, check to make sure your airplane is in service and your flight is still scheduled.

United Airlines said today it pulled all 52 of its Boeing 777 aircraft out of service for "a functional check."

Remember that airlines are incapable of calling unpleasant things by their right names. So translate "functional check" as "safety inspection."

Here's the United statement on its sidelined 777s.

United had a total of 279 aircraft in its mainline fleet as of Dec. 31, down from 290 a year earlier. The 52 Boeing 777s are the workhorses of United's international networks, though some are flown on long-haul domestic routes.

There has been a recent spate of abrupt airline actions to take planes out of service to come into belated compliance with various F.A.A. air-safety directives that seem to have been treated cavalierly by the airlines in question.

United says its current action is not related to an F.A.A. directive, however.

The airlines and the FAA have for years had a very cozy relationship, with implications for passenger safety, and the scandal only now is coming to light.

You'll be hearing a lot more about that in days to come, assuming the media starts doing a more aggressive job covering and explaining the way-too-friendly relationship between the F.A.A. and the airlines.

The F.A.A., by the way, routinely refers to airlines as its "customers." What does that say about the relationship?

Don't think corporate travel managers aren't paying close attention to the current aircraft safety and maintenance issues.

They're thinking of three little words that can come up in lawsuits: Duty of care.

***

[Update: United issued this following update on its 777 operations as of 3.30 p.m. Central time. Note that more than half of the 777 international flights have already been canceled:]

"26 aircraft have been inspected.

There have been 38 flights canceled today.

Impact by city and international

ORD

5 cancels of 10 flights

DEN

2 cancels of 4 flights

IAD

6 cancels of 13 flights

SFO

0 cancels of 10 flights

LAX

3 cancels of 5 flights

SEA

0 cancels of 1 flight

International

20 cancels of 34 flights

Hawaii

2 cancels of 6 flights

***

United Issues Travel Waiver for Customers Affected by Today’s Delays and Cancellations

CHICAGO, April 2, 2008 – United customers who are traveling today and tomorrow on a United Boeing 777 aircraft may take advantage of its travel waiver and consider changing their travel plans, as certain change fees have been waived.

United flies its Boeing 777 aircraft on many international routes and some domestic routes between its hubs in Denver, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington Dulles. Customers may log on to united.com, call United reservations at 1-800-UNITED-1 or a travel agency to determine what type of aircraft they are flying on and to make changes to their itineraries.

Customers with already canceled flights are eligible for a full refund.

We apologize for any inconvenience and ask customers to check their flight status on united.com before leaving for the airport. United is currently working to provide additional aircraft where available and is accommodating customers on other flights and other airlines.

Earlier today, United Airlines informed customers traveling on April 2, 2008 on United's Boeing 777 aircraft that they will experience flight delays or cancellations as a result of a functional check being performed on the aircraft.

As part of a regular review of maintenance records, the company discovered that the functional test that checks the firing system on one of the five bottles in the cargo fire suppression system on the Boeing 777 was not performed, and this was voluntarily disclosed to the FAA. United is in the process of checking this part of the system. This system is regularly tested as part of the pre-flight safety checks.

These checks are related to compliance. United will not operate these aircraft until the tests are complete.

United will conduct the check on all 52 Boeing 777 aircraft in the company's fleet.

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Air de Loon (Central Florida ... Again!)

Let's not get carried away by the crack response to this loon nabbed at the Orlando airport after trying to check a backbag that contained some pipes and some printed material on bomb-making.

Naturally, the usual media nitwits, locally and nationally, immediately began hyperventilating.

Knee-jerk politicians like Rep. John L. Mica, the Florida Republican, who used to chair the House transportation subcommittee, rushed breathlessly to get into the action and try to evoke 9/11.

"Within the last hour I received a closed Transportation Security Administration briefing from TSA Administrator Kip Hawley relating to the incident at Orlando International Airport. This appears to have been a serious matter with the potential for tragic consequences, and the incident is being thoroughly investigated. This incident serves as a reminder that our nation and our aviation system face the continued threat of potential attacks," he said in a statement hurried out by his office.

Yada, yada ... What the incident serves as a reminder of is: 1. The "behavior specialists" that Kip Hawley put in place to expand security, and try to spot trouble before it gets to the head of the line, are doing the job, and 2. Outright severely mentally disturbed people -- oh hell, let me use the term: lunatics -- generally behave in ways that are obvious, as this guy did. Evidently, passengers in the area also noted and reported his bizarre behavior.

According to one local television report:

"Passengers waiting to board flights at Orlando International Airport Tuesday said they noticed Brown acting suspiciously before agents moved in.

'He looked rather crazy,' a passenger said. 'He was rocking left and right and up and down. He looked a little wacko.' "

This is not the way a crafty terrorist behaves.

The FBI later said that the following were found in the backpack: "Two galvanized pipes, end caps, two small containers containing BBs, batteries, two containers with an unknown liquid, and bombing making literature."

The Associated Press says the man told authorities he had the stuff because he wanted to demonstrate to friends in Jamaica, his destination, how to make a bomb.

Remember: His backback never got into a cargo hold of an airplane, and he never got through security.

The way I see it, the system worked as it was supposed to. So calm down, congressman.

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Just Saying ...

---How many bags? British Airways keeps inching up on the number of bags it says have gone missing in the Terminal 5 opening fiasco, and now it's supposedly 19,000. Howard Wheeldon, an analyst at BGC Partners in the UK, told Bloomberg UK that many observers think the number is actually higher than 35,000 -- and that British Airways' assurances that bags will be delivered to people within a week are "nonsense." Said Wheeldon: "It'll take months to get rid of all that baggage." Talk about timing: The Terminal 5 meltdown occurred just as new competitors, including Delta and Continental, began operating out of Heathrow with the kickoff of the Open Skies agreement between the U.S. and the E.U. "It couldn't have come at a worse time" for B.A., Wheeldon said.

Meanwhile, some British Airways flights at Terminal 5 are still being canceled, and now B.A. says it's bringing in FedEx to get the bags sorted out. At last, an outfit that actually delivers!

***

---Speaking of bags, there's another alleged incident of systematic theft from passengers bags by TSA inspectors. This one happened in -- where else? -- Central Florida (Tampa).

***

---Everybody's looking for indications that domestic air travel is slowing down as fares keep rising. Continental just reported its March operating data, and there's no sign yet of a slowdown. Continental had record domestic load factors for the month (the percentage of seats filled by paying customers) in March -- 85.2 percent, one percentage point higher than March 2007. Domestic seat capacity was down 0.3 percent, but passenger traffic was up 0.9 percent. Nearly a third (31.6 percent) of flights arrived late.

***

---The chronically overlooked story of aircraft maintenance, including rampant outsourcing of critical maintenance by domestic airlines (American is an exception), is about to get better coverage. And the Teamsters are going to be a part of it.

***

---I like to 'ave a laff as much as the next person, but I really do not understand this British fascination with elaborate April Fool's stunts in the media. Dunno, something inherently, well, creepy, in them, to me at least. Also, I really do not think that an airline should be pulling April Fool's jokes at all. Every day, after all, is April Fool's day in the skies.

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Aloha Airlines Ceases Operations

Aloha Airlines is shutting down flight operations. The announcement is below. (I do wish they would have avoided blaming "unfair" competition, or saying that passengers will be "inconvenienced" rather than, as will be the fact in many cases, "stranded." Even on their death-beds, airlines seem to be unable to speak truth.)

Aloha, battered by competition from the low-fare airline go!, had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 20.

Code-share partner United Airlines is offering space available accommodations to Aloha code-share passengers with a United ticket, and offering "discounted one-way fares" for those with Aloha tickets to return home. Here's the United statement.

[Joe Brancatelli just sent out an alert to members of his subscription site Joesentme.com with good advice for Aloha ticket-holders left holding the bag: "Worst case scenario, contact your credit-card company to contest the charge. Under federal law, credit-card companies cannot charge you for services not provided."]

Here's the Aloha announcement:

"ALOHA AIRLINES TO SHUT DOWN PASSENGER OPERATIONS AFTER MARCH 31, 2008, ENDING A 61-YEAR TRADITION OF SERVICE TO HAWAII

HONOLULU – -- Aloha Airlines announced today that it will be shutting down its inter-island and transpacific passenger flight operations. Aloha’s last day of operations will be Monday, March 31, 2008. On that day, Aloha will operate its schedule with the exception of flights from Hawaii to the West Coast and flights from Orange County to Reno and Sacramento, and Oakland to Las Vegas. Code-share partner United Airlines and other airlines are prepared to assist and accommodate Aloha’'s passengers who have been inconvenienced.

For more information on United'’s accommodation options, contact United at 1-800-UNITED1 or www.united.com. Passengers who do not wish to be re-accommodated by another airline should contact their travel agent or credit card company to request a refund. Effective immediately, Aloha will stop selling tickets for travel beyond March 31, 2008.

The shutdown of Aloha'’s passenger operations will affect about 1,900 employees. Aloha also announced that its air cargo and aviation services units will continue to operate as usual while the U.S. Bankruptcy Court seeks bids from potential buyers. On March 27, 2008, Saltchuk Resources, Inc., announced its intention to buy Aloha’'s air cargo business.

“This is an incredibly dark day for Hawaii,” said David A. Banmiller, Aloha’'s president and chief executive officer. “Despite the groundswell of support from the community and our elected officials, we simply ran out of time to find a qualified buyer or secure continued financing for our passenger business. We had no choice but to take this action.

“We deeply regret the impact this will have on our dedicated employees who have made Aloha one of the best operating airlines in the country. “Aloha Airlines was founded in 1946 to give Hawaii’s people a choice in inter-island air transportation.

Unfortunately, unfair competition has succeeded in driving us out of business, bringing to an end a 61-year-old company with a proud legacy of serving millions of travelers in the true spirit of Aloha. ”We realize that this comes as a devastating disappointment to our frequent flyers and our loyal business partners who have supported this company for many, many years.”"

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